Untangling the effects of climate change on ice shelf melting in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica

南极西部冰盖的崩溃有可能导致海平面上升3米以上，这将使世界各地的沿海城市陷入困境。对冰盖最直接的威胁是阿蒙森海的海洋变暖。然而，导致这种变暖的过程是复杂的，而且人们对其知之甚少。在上个世纪，阿蒙森海的风的变化很可能通过将温暖的海水从深海泵到大陆架来推动海洋变暖。这些风的变化部分是由人类引起的气候变化造成的，预计未来将继续下去。然而，在下一个世纪，我们还预计阿蒙森海上空的气温将大幅上升。目前还不知道温暖的大气将如何影响这一地区的海洋环流。哪一个对阿蒙森海更重要：风还是大气变暖？这两种气候变化是如何孤立地起作用的，它们是相互作用的吗？在什么时候，如果有的话，大气变暖会取代风成为驱动阿蒙森海海洋变暖的主要机制？该项目将使用模型来回答这些关于西南极洲未来的基本问题。

Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has the potential to cause over 3 metres of sea level rise, which would devastate coastal cities worldwide. The most immediate threat to the ice sheet is ocean warming in the Amundsen Sea. However, the processes which cause this warming are complex and poorly understood. Over the last century, changes in the winds over the Amundsen Sea have likely driven ocean warming, by pumping warm water from the deep ocean onto the continental shelf. These wind changes are partially caused by human-induced climate change, and are expected to continue in the future. However, over the next century, we also expect to see large increases in air temperature over the Amundsen Sea. It is not known how a warmer atmosphere will affect the ocean circulation in this region. Which matters more to the Amundsen Sea: winds, or atmospheric warming? How do these two climatic changes work in isolation, and do they interact? At what point, if any, will atmospheric warming take over from the winds as the dominant mechanism driving ocean warming in the Amundsen Sea? This project will use models to answer these fundamental questions about the future of West Antarctica.