BioCast: Using Weather Radars and Numerical Weather Forecast to Predict Changes in Biodiversity

“气象雷达每5分钟扫描一次整个英国，世界各地都在使用类似类型的雷达。这类雷达通常探测大气中的昆虫和其他动物，但由于气象学家对动物不感兴趣，它们被当作不必要的“噪音”而丢弃。这种“噪音”是昆虫多样性和丰富性信息的真正宝库，但我们需要的是一种方法，将雷达观察到的东西与我们预测昆虫迁徙、大规模出现或害虫入侵的能力联系起来。这个跨学科的博士项目旨在评估如何雷达数据，数值天气预报和生态模型可以一起使用，以产生生物学上有用的信息，可以应用于解决当代生态问题。该项目将涉及物理学、生态学和气象学等一系列技术（并提供培训）。在该项目的第一阶段，学生将接受培训，使用NERC资助的BioDAR和DRUID项目的输出，这些项目使用英国的天气雷达来绘制昆虫的丰度和多样性，结合高分辨率数值天气预报输出，以评估英国各地空中动物群的不同运动，以及可能或可能不驱动它们的详细大气条件。这可能包括英国气象局雷达记录在案的年度“飞蚁日”、由Rothamsted Research运行的原位采样系统和由利兹大学研究人员组织的公民科学数据收集活动、蚜虫爆发和/或飞蛾迁徙。在该项目的第二阶段，学生将选择一组案例研究，并将“错误”放入计算机中。这意味着学生将使用高分辨率的数值天气预报模型来模拟选定动物群的运动和行为。这将通过将广泛使用的天气研究预报（WRF）模型与学生开发的“动物群”模拟模块相结合来实现，其方式类似于WRF与气溶胶和化学模块相结合以模拟空气质量的方式。在项目的第三阶段，开发的模型将用于研究保护中的一个紧迫问题：人类对景观的修改对昆虫的影响。学生可能会以三种方式之一来研究这个问题，通过研究光污染，城市化和/或农业环境计划（旨在帮助农田的自然）对第二阶段选择的昆虫的影响。总的来说，这个博士项目有一个令人兴奋的跨学科的重点，如果工作成功，将产生相当大的影响。我们已经确定了英国（自然英格兰，生态和水文中心，BugLife）和国外（美国和南非）的主要外部合作伙伴，他们将参与讨论和指导该项目。该项目将受益于一名在雷达分析方面具有较强定量技能并对解决现实世界环境问题感兴趣的学生。"

"Weather radars scan the entirety of the UK every 5 minutes, and similar types of radar are used around the world for the same purpose. Such radar routinely insects and other animal life in the atmosphere, but since animals are not of interest to meteorologists, they are discarded as unwanted "noise". That "noise" is a veritable treasure trove of information on insect diversity and abundance, but what is required is a way to link what a radar observes to our ability to predict the onset of insect migrations, mass emergences or pest invasions. This interdisciplinary PhD project is designed to assess how radar data, numerical weather forecasts and ecological models can be used together to generate biologically useful information that can be applied to solve contemporary ecological problems. The project will involve (and provide training in) a range of techniques from physics, ecology and meteorology. In the first phase of the project, the student will be trained to use the output of the NERC-funded BioDAR and DRUID projects, which have used the UK's weather radars to map insect abundance and diversity through time, in combination with high-resolution numerical weather forecast output to assess different movements of aerial fauna across the UK with regards to the detailed atmospheric conditions that may or may not be driving them. This could potentially include the annual "fly ant day" that is well documented in the UK Met Office's radars, in situ sampling systems run by Rothamsted Research and citizen science data collection campaigns organised by researchers at the University of Leeds, outbreaks of aphids and or migrations of moths.In the second phase of the project, the student will select a set of case studies and work on putting the "bugs" into the computer. By this, we mean the student will use a high-resolution numerical weather forecasting model to simulate the movement and behaviours of the selected fauna groups. This will be achieved by coupling the widely used Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model to a "fauna" simulation module developed by the student in a manner similar to how WRF has been coupled to aerosol and chemistry modules to model air quality.In the third phase of the project, the developed model will be used to investigate a pressing issue in conservation: the effect of human modification of the landscape on insects. The student will possibly examine this issue in one of three ways, by looking at the impacts of light pollution, urbanisation, and or agri-environment schemes (which are designed to help nature on farmland) depedning on the insects chosen in the second phase. Taken together, this PhD project has an exciting interdisciplinary focus that will produce considerable impact if the work is successful. We have already identified key external partners both within the UK (Natural England, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, BugLife) and abroad (in the US and South Africa) who will be involved in discussions and guiding the project. The project would benefit from a student with strong quantitative skills in radar analysis and an interest in solving real-world environmental problems."