Identifying and protecting coral reef adaptive potential

最近前所未有的热应激水平深刻地改变了全球许多珊瑚礁群落，影响了直接依赖珊瑚礁为生的约10亿人。随着气候条件变得越来越极端，从而对珊瑚物种产生不利影响，预计由于急性热应激事件的频率增加，珊瑚礁生态系统几乎无法持续存在。该项目与非政府组织合作，其长期目标是识别和保护全球有很大机会适应气候变化的珊瑚礁网络。这项工作的广泛目的是将这些决定建立在创新的科学研究基础上，这些研究考察了进化在拯救珊瑚礁免受气候变化影响方面所起的作用。这里的一个关键挑战是，珊瑚的高遗传变异性是它们长期生存的关键，但是在足够大的尺度上识别遗传变异性以通知保护工作的方法并不存在。艾伦珊瑚地图集的出现，一种独一无二的珊瑚礁测绘技术，为我们提供了一种工具，可以开发栖息地质量、微型避难所和适应能力的指标，以及新推出的珊瑚白化监测和警报。跨国公司加勒比公司及其合作伙伴还开发了首个加勒比地区范围内的4米分辨率底栖生物栖息地地图，其中包括该地区13个标准化栖息地类别（http://caribbeanmarinemaps.tnc.org/）。在这里，我们希望开展研究，以综合新的信息，并确定最有可能适应气候变化的珊瑚礁网络。这个博士项目将为这一过程提供支持，重点是探索栖息地适宜性的指标和“适应潜力”的关键变量，以帮助确定最有可能促进珊瑚进化拯救的珊瑚礁网络（可能在加勒比海或印度尼西亚）。然后，这些指标可以为马克思的空间规划提供信息，马克思是世界上使用最广泛的保护规划工具，支持海洋保护区的设计。本项目将与著名的珊瑚礁生态学家、保护规划师和非政府组织的执行者合作，探讨以下主题：研究可能指示珊瑚礁群落适应潜力的珊瑚礁类型的多尺度形态分类；评估珊瑚礁群落对过去热应力的反应，并根据绘制的形态类别（和其他广泛可用的数据集）预测它们未来的反应；说谎。空间规划，确定管理珊瑚礁应对气候变化的优先领域，以实现适应潜力为目标。该项目将使用新发布的艾伦珊瑚地图集数据集（https://allencoralatlas.org/），新的1公里海面温度预测和珊瑚礁监测数据来确定检测适应性或气候抵抗性珊瑚群落的方法。您将测试不同空间尺度上的珊瑚礁复杂性可以表明珊瑚群落更高的抵抗力、恢复力和/或适应潜力的想法。这个问题将通过空间分析（GIS）和开发珊瑚礁对热暴露的反应模型来分析。如果兴趣和资金允许，可以利用分子工具测试适应性潜力。因此，需要在定量方法方面有很强的背景和/或兴趣，并且对GIS和R有很好的了解。

The recent unprecedented levels of heat stress have profoundly altered many coral reef communities globally, affecting ~1 billion people whose livelihoods depend directly on them. As climatic conditions become increasingly extreme and thus marginal for coral species, coral reef ecosystems are predicted to barely persist due to increased frequencies of acute thermal stress events. This project is working with NGOs whose long-term goal it is to identify and protect coral reef networks globally that have strong chances of adapting to climate change. This work aims broadly to base these decisions on innovative scientific research that examines the role that evolution plays in rescuing reefs from the effects of climate change. A key challenge here is that high genetic variability in corals is key to their long-term survival, but methods to identify genetic variability at scales large enough to inform conservation efforts do not exist. The emergence of the Allen Coral Atlas, a one-of-a-kind reef mapping technology, provides us with a tool to develop metrics of habitat quality, micro-refuges, and adaptive capacity, as well as newly-launched coral bleaching monitoring and alerts. TNC-Caribbean and partners have also developed the first-ever Caribbean-wide, 4m-resolution benthic habitat maps with 13 standardized habitat classes across the region (http://caribbeanmarinemaps.tnc.org/). Here, we want to develop research to synthesize new information and identify reef networks most likely to adapt to climate change. This PhD project will feed into this process, with focus on exploring metrics for habitat suitability and variables key to "adaptive potential" to help identify networks of reefs (probably in the Caribbean or Indonesia) most likely to facilitate evolutionary rescue of corals. These metrics can then inform spatial planning with Marxan, the most widely used conservation planning tool supporting the design of marine reserves worldwide. This project will work with leading coral reef ecologists, conservation planners and NGO implementers to explore these topics:1. Investigating multi-scale morphological categories of reef types that may indicate adaptive potential in coral reef communities;2. Assessing reef community responses to past thermal stress and projecting their future responses based on mapped morphological categories (and other widely-available datasets); and3. Spatial planning to identify priority areas for managing coral reefs for climate change for objectives that target adaptive potential.The project will use the newly published Allen Coral Atlas data sets (https://allencoralatlas.org/), new 1km sea surface temperature projections, and coral reef monitoring data to determine ways of detecting adaptive or climate resistant coral communities. You will test the idea that reef complexity at different spatial scales can indicate higher resistance, resilience, and/or adaptive potential of coral communities. This question will be approached analytically with spatial analysis (GIS), and by developing models of coral reef responses to thermal exposure. There may be scope to test adaptive potential with molecular tools if interest and funding availability allow. Thus, a strong background and/or interest in quantitative methods, and at good knowledge of GIS and R is required..