Rare Event Simulation: Protecting vital infrastructure from flood extremes

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This research aims to develop Rare Event Simulation to quantify the future risk of very rare to extreme floods. Expected outcomes include a framework for the design and maintenance of critical Civil Engineering infrastructure such as dams, extrapolation of extreme storm events beyond the observed record, and an assessment of change in rare flood risk across Australia. The significance of this world-first research lies in adapting rare event simulation techniques that have only been applied to computer system failure before, to water engineering design. With Australian riverine flooding projected to cause $170 billion in losses by 2050, the benefit of this proposal in reducing future infrastructure damage costs and liability is overwhelming.