Understanding the emergent macro-scale impacts caused by the rapid expansion of Offshore Wind within The North Sea System

这个项目的目的是了解北海离岸风的扩张正在并将如何影响目前建立的社会生态系统，并破译其可能在不同海洋用途之间造成冲突的可能性。一个预期的项目结果是确定和/或预测该系统的新出现的特征，例如对其他海洋使用者或环境的未见影响。另一个是能够根据所获得的结果提出海洋空间规划(MSP)建议，最终培养北海系统的复原力并提高其可持续性。为了实现这些结果，首先将在当地范围内收集与社会、经济和生态子系统有关的社会生态数据，沿着英格兰东北海岸的一段路段。这将以实物和一些社会变量的现有监测数据的形式，并通过与利益攸关方和当地社区的访谈，以了解当地规模系统的联系、相互作用和紧张关系。然后，特征将被应用到社会生态系统的概念模型中，包括当地风力发电开发引起的变化，然后通过将系统复杂性和预测能力整合到一套已知的复杂系统模型中来改善系统复杂性和预测能力。然后，当地模型将用于有针对性地整理北海自然、生态和社会环境的宏观数据。然后将这些宏观数据应用于当地模型，然后运行该模型，以利用历史数据测试其对北海社会生态系统的预测能力。然后，将通过改变、增加或减少某些联系和代理来提高模型的准确性，以反映地方和区域比例尺之间没有共享的任何复杂性。然后，海上风能的预测扩展将被应用于该模型，以发现新出现的系统影响，例如海洋食物网的变化、生物地球化学循环、沿海人口动态以及近海风能如何对渔业和旅游业等其他海洋部门有利或不利。总体目标是利用这些发现对北海的MSP产生积极的影响。这个项目的目标是真正的跨学科，这意味着该系统的所有方面都将得到适当的信任，而不是大多数类似的项目往往高估经济、社会或生态子系统。由于这些公平的考虑，由此产生的MSP建议不仅将使近海风能受益，而且也将使许多其他海洋用户受益。具体地说，该项目产生的知识将用于预测日益拥挤的北海地区的利益攸关方冲突，并提出有助于控制或缓解冲突的MSP干预措施。

The aim of this project is to find out how the expansion of offshore wind in the North Sea is and will be effecting the currently established socio-ecological system, and to decipher their potential to generate conflicts between different marine uses.One intended project outcome is to identify and/or predict newly emergent features of the system, such as unseen effects on other marine users or the environment. Another is to be able to make Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) recommendations based on the results obtained, ultimately fostering resilience and boosting sustainability of the North Sea system.To achieve these outcomes, socio-ecological data - which pertain here to social, economic and ecological subsystems - will at first be gathered at the local scale, along a stretch of the North East coast of England. This will be in the forms of existing monitoring data for physical and some social variables, and in stakeholder and local community interviews to understand local scale system linkages, interactions and tensions. Features will then be applied into a conceptual model of the socio-ecological system, with changes that arise from local wind power development included, before system complexity and predictive capacity are improved by integrating in a suite of known complex systems models. The local model will then be used to inform targeted collation of macro-scale data on the physical, ecological and social environment of the North Sea. This macro-data will then be applied to the local model, before the model is ran to test its predictive ability for the North Sea socio-ecological system, by use of historical data. The model accuracy will then be improved by altering, adding, or subtracting certain linkages and agents to reflect any complexities that are not shared between the local and regional scales. The projected expansion of offshore wind energy will then be applied to the model to discover emergent system impacts, such as changes to ocean food webs, biogeochemical cycles, coastal population dynamics and how offshore wind may benefit or detriment other marine sectors such as fisheries and tourism. The overall goal is to use these findings to have a positive influence on MSP in the North Sea.This project aims to be truly interdisciplinary, meaning appropriate credence will be given to all aspects of the system, unlike in the majority of similar projects that tend to over-value either the economic, social or the ecological subsystems. Because of these equitable considerations, the resultant MSP recommendations would not only benefit offshore wind, but many other marine users too. Specifically, the knowledge generated from this project will be used to anticipate stakeholder conflicts in the increasingly crowded North Sea region, and suggest MSP interventions that help to control or mitigate them.