A Panel Study of Elderly vs Nonelderly Migration Flows and State Fiscal Policy

描述（由申请人提供）：拟议的研究考虑了两个主要问题-什么因素影响老年人的选址决策以及这些迁移行为如何随时间变化？拟议的研究在过去的研究中提供了两个重要的改进：1)对国家财政政策的作用进行了更彻底的检查，特别是国家对老年人的所得税优惠；2)使用了来自四次人口普查（1970-2000）的老年人和非老年人的面板移民流数据。实证分析估计，这些年来的移民流动是输出国和接受国特征（包括国家财政政策）的函数。丰富的移民数据有助于包括大量的政策变量，并允许我们对计量经济学上未观察到的目的地、起源甚至流动效应进行建模。这一分析使我们能够看到政策的变化如何导致移民行为的变化，从而更好地隔离州特征对老年人迁移的影响。重复对非老年人迁移的分析使我们能够确定这些因素对老年人（相对于非老年人）迁移的不同影响。使用综合人口统计系统进行的补充描述性分析将深入了解老年移民的构成（例如健康、富裕、年龄和其他“生命历程”属性）在此期间是如何变化的，并受到国家特征的影响。这项研究的另外两个副产品是对各州老年人所得税优惠演变的全面统计，以及对老年人和非老年人移民流动和走廊（两个州之间的个人流动）如何随时间变化的描述性分析。老年移民及其导致的人口结构变化可能对各州的公共卫生保健系统和财政福利产生严重影响。由于老年人所得税优惠和遗产/继承税法的变化，估计国家收入损失是巨大的。随着人口老龄化，这些损失使得各州更难以应对公共医疗保健系统的压力。美国整体人口的老龄化和各州日益增长的财政角色加剧了这一动态。这项研究增加了我们对这些政策及其对州人口统计的影响的理解，这对于制定政策解决美国人口老龄化的需求、医疗保健和其他方面的问题至关重要。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The proposed research considers two main questions -- what factors influence the location decisions of the elderly and how have these migration behaviors changed over time? The proposed research offers two important improvements over past studies: 1) a more thorough examination of the role of state fiscal policy, especially state income tax preferences for the elderly, and 2) the use of panel migration flow data, from four censuses (1970-2000), for the elderly and nonelderly. The empirical analysis estimates the migration flows over these years as a function of the characteristics, including state fiscal policy, of the sending and receiving states. The rich migration data facilitates including a large set of policy variables and permits us to model econometrically unobserved destination, origin and even flow effects. This analysis allows us to see how changes in policy lead to changes in migration behavior, which better isolates the effects of state characteristics on elderly migration. Repeating the analysis for nonelderly migration allows us to identify the differential effects of these factors on elderly (as opposed to nonelderly) migration. A supplemental, descriptive analysis using the PUMS will provide insight into how the composition (e.g., health, affluence, age and other 'life-course' attributes) of elderly migrants has changed during this period and been influenced by state characteristics. Two additional byproducts of this research are a full accounting of the evolution of state income tax preferences for the elderly and a descriptive analysis of how elderly and nonelderly migration flows and corridors (the movement of individuals between two states) have changed over time. Elderly migration and the resulting change in demographics can have serious implications for states' public health care systems and fiscal well-being. Estimated state revenue losses due to elderly income tax preferences and changes to estate/inheritance tax laws are substantial. Such losses make it more difficult for states to address the strain on their public health care systems as their populations age. The aging of the overall U.S. population and the growing fiscal role of the states exacerbates this dynamic. This research adds to our understanding of these policies and their effects on state demographics, which is critical to devising policies that address the demands, health care and otherwise, of an aging U.S. population.