Integrated modelling of impacts of urban policies to support urban decision making

应对气候变化或改善空气质量的城市政策有可能在公共和地球健康方面产生重大的共同效益，或反过来在其他部门产生意想不到的后果。然而，我们创造了脱节的目标，运动和法规，以解决孤立的问题。缺乏联合思维是浪费了改善城市可持续性和健康的机会。量化与城市政策及其替代方案相关的惠益、共同惠益和权衡，有助于从整体角度论证最具吸引力的备选方案。为了发挥最大的作用，证据基础还必须认识到政策周期、公众诉求和相互竞争的利益的具体需求。最终需要一个系统的角度来展示与不同的政策选择和支持决策相关的吸引力或风险。本博士建议开发一个决策支持工具，其中包括综合健康和环境影响模型，供决策者使用系统的角度做出明智的选择。将建立一个量化模型框架，将现有的和相对方便用户的模型联系起来，以共同评估一系列城市政策的影响。该项目将侧重于交通基础设施和城市土地使用规划，展示各自带来的不同程度和范围的利益、共同利益和权衡。将采用共同创造的办法来确定拟模拟的政策和影响的范围。

Urban policies to address climate change or improve air quality have the potential to generate significant co-benefits in public and planetary health, or in reverse lead to unintended consequences in other sectors. Yet, we create disjointed targets, campaigns and regulations that tackle problems in siloes. The lack of joined-up thinking is a wasted opportunity to improve urban sustainability and health. Quantifying benefits, co-benefits and trade-offs associated urban policies and their alternatives can help make the case for options that are most appealing from a holistic perspective. To be most useful the evidence-base must also recognize specific needs of policy cycles, public appeal, and competing interests. A systems perspective ultimately is needed to demonstrate the attractiveness or risks associated with different policy options and support decision-making.This PhD proposes to develop a decision-making support tool that includes integrated health and environmental impact models for policy makers to make informed choices using a systems perspective. A quantitative modelling framework linking existing and relatively user-friendly models will be assembled to assess jointly impacts of a range of urban policies. The project will focus on transport infrastructure and urban land use planning, demonstrating the varying degrees and extent of benefits, co-benefits, and trade-offs each entail. A co-creation approach will be used to scope the policies and impacts to be modelled.