Pan-Arctic System Modelling (PASM) for detection and early warning of climate change impacts

用于气候变化影响检测和预警的泛北极系统建模 (PASM)

• 批准号: RGPIN-2022-03286
• 负责人: Stadnyk, Tricia
• 金额: $ 2.19万
• 依托单位: University of Calgary
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=754829
• 关键词: Pan; Arctic; System; Modelling; PASM

The most recent IPCC working group report declared that observed climate changes are "unprecedented" and "intensifying" and the United Nations declared that tackling the scientific understanding of climate change as "one of the most pressing issues of our time". In the Canadian context, climate change impacts in the Arctic are explicitly linked with economic prosperity, resource security, and National sovereignty, including transportation routes and international trade via northern shipping routes and ice roads. Runoff generation and cumulative contributions of freshwater discharge into the Arctic basin are rapidly changing under warming high-latitude climates, but the impacts of these dynamic shifts in both the timing and volume of freshwater are relatively unknown. It is well established that increasing freshwater discharge to the Arctic basin is impacting the amount and seasonality of sea ice, which in turn influences thermohaline circulation. Examining the influence changing freshwater inputs have on the Arctic basin is crucial to the global understanding of climate change and Arctic ecosystems. Leveraging my expertise in continental scale, high latitude hydrologic modelling, this research proposes to develop critical linkages between climate, hydrologic and human-induced landscape changes that impact pan-Arctic discharge. By developing an integrated pan-arctic System Modelling (PASM) platform, dynamic climate-driven hydrologic scenarios will be integrated with the NEMO ocean model, providing continuous (in time and space) runoff, physical tracers of freshwater (i.e., temperature, isotope tracers), and river ice and velocity. Such a platform is crucial to the understanding of the cumulative effects of climate change on Arctic systems, and the subsequent impacts on ocean thermohaline circulation (i.e., the North Atlantic deep-water formation) affecting global climate. The Intergovernmetal Panel on Climate Change and Arctic council both recognize the Grand Challenge of an Arctic region at risk under a rapidly warming climate, destabilizing soils underpinning infrastructure and impacting transportation and access to the North.

最近的IPCC工作组报告宣称，观测到的气候变化是“前所未有的”和“加剧的”，联合国宣布，解决对气候变化的科学理解是“我们这个时代最紧迫的问题之一”。在加拿大的背景下，气候变化对北极的影响与经济繁荣、资源安全和国家主权，包括通过北方航线和冰路的运输路线和国际贸易，有着明确的联系。在变暖的高纬度气候下，流入北极盆地的径流生成和淡水排放的累积贡献正在迅速变化，但这些动态变化对淡水的时间和数量的影响相对未知。已经确定的是，向北极盆地增加的淡水流量正在影响海冰的数量和季节性，而海冰的数量和季节性反过来又影响热盐环流。研究不断变化的淡水输入对北极盆地的影响对于全球了解气候变化和北极生态系统至关重要。利用我在大陆尺度、高纬度水文建模方面的专业知识，本研究建议发展影响泛北极排放的气候、水文和人类引起的景观变化之间的关键联系。通过开发一个综合泛北极系统建模（PASM）平台，动态气候驱动的水文情景将与NEMO海洋模型相结合，提供连续的（时间和空间）径流、淡水物理示踪剂（即温度、同位素示踪剂）、河流冰和流速。这样一个平台对于了解气候变化对北极系统的累积效应以及随后对影响全球气候的海洋热盐环流（即北大西洋深水形成）的影响至关重要。政府间气候变化专门委员会和北极理事会都认识到，在气候迅速变暖的情况下，北极地区面临巨大挑战，破坏了支撑基础设施的土壤，影响了交通和通往北方的通道。