Pan-Arctic System Modelling (PASM) for detection and early warning of climate change impacts

用于气候变化影响检测和预警的泛北极系统建模 (PASM)

• 批准号: RGPIN-2022-03286
• 负责人: Stadnyk, Tricia
• 金额: $ 2.19万
• 依托单位: University of Calgary
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=754829
• 关键词: Pan; Arctic; System; Modelling; PASM

The most recent IPCC working group report declared that observed climate changes are "unprecedented" and "intensifying" and the United Nations declared that tackling the scientific understanding of climate change as "one of the most pressing issues of our time". In the Canadian context, climate change impacts in the Arctic are explicitly linked with economic prosperity, resource security, and National sovereignty, including transportation routes and international trade via northern shipping routes and ice roads. Runoff generation and cumulative contributions of freshwater discharge into the Arctic basin are rapidly changing under warming high-latitude climates, but the impacts of these dynamic shifts in both the timing and volume of freshwater are relatively unknown. It is well established that increasing freshwater discharge to the Arctic basin is impacting the amount and seasonality of sea ice, which in turn influences thermohaline circulation. Examining the influence changing freshwater inputs have on the Arctic basin is crucial to the global understanding of climate change and Arctic ecosystems. Leveraging my expertise in continental scale, high latitude hydrologic modelling, this research proposes to develop critical linkages between climate, hydrologic and human-induced landscape changes that impact pan-Arctic discharge. By developing an integrated pan-arctic System Modelling (PASM) platform, dynamic climate-driven hydrologic scenarios will be integrated with the NEMO ocean model, providing continuous (in time and space) runoff, physical tracers of freshwater (i.e., temperature, isotope tracers), and river ice and velocity. Such a platform is crucial to the understanding of the cumulative effects of climate change on Arctic systems, and the subsequent impacts on ocean thermohaline circulation (i.e., the North Atlantic deep-water formation) affecting global climate. The Intergovernmetal Panel on Climate Change and Arctic council both recognize the Grand Challenge of an Arctic region at risk under a rapidly warming climate, destabilizing soils underpinning infrastructure and impacting transportation and access to the North.

政府间气候变化专门委员会工作组的最新报告宣称，观测到的气候变化是“史无前例的”和“加剧的”，联合国宣称，解决对气候变化的科学理解是“我们这个时代最紧迫的问题之一”。在加拿大的情况下，北极地区的气候变化影响与经济繁荣、资源安全和国家主权明确相关，包括运输路线和通过北方航运路线和冰路的国际贸易。在高纬度气候变暖的情况下，流入北极盆地的淡水产生量和累积贡献量正在迅速变化，但这些动态变化对淡水时间和水量的影响相对未知。众所周知，越来越多的淡水流入北极盆地，正在影响海冰的数量和季节性，进而影响温盐循环。考察不断变化的淡水投入对北极盆地的影响，对于全球了解气候变化和北极生态系统至关重要。利用我在大陆尺度、高纬度水文模型方面的专业知识，这项研究建议在气候、水文和人类引起的影响泛北极流量的景观变化之间建立关键联系。通过开发泛北极系统综合模拟平台，气候驱动的动态水文情景将与尼莫海洋模型相结合，提供连续的(在时间和空间上)径流、淡水的物理示踪(即温度、同位素示踪)以及河流冰和流速。这一平台对于了解气候变化对北极系统的累积影响，以及随后对影响全球气候的海洋温盐环流(即北大西洋深水形成)的影响至关重要。政府间气候变化专门委员会和北极理事会都认识到，北极地区面临的重大挑战是，气候迅速变暖，支撑基础设施的土壤不稳定，影响交通和通往北方的通道。