Threat assessment of the involuntary celibate (incel) online community: developing a structured professional judgement tool to identify incels at risk

乱伦社区（非自愿独身者的一个合成词）描述自己基本上无法找到性或浪漫的关系，尽管渴望一个-一个状态被称为乱伦。这个群体与极端的厌女症和一种普遍的信念有关，即他们的处境只能通过伤害外群体（有吸引力的男人或女人）来改善。直接煽动对妇女的暴力行为导致了乱伦意识形态被描述为暴力极端主义。近年来，与乱伦社区有关的大规模暴力事件一直在增加，自2014年以来已有50多起案件。此外，论坛用户一致认为，与乱伦相关的攻击在未来将变得更加频繁。一小群乱伦者采用乱伦亚文化最暴力的表现形式，美化乱伦杀手，幻想强奸和对社会施加暴力，这可能造成社会危害（Moskalenko等人，2022年，它变得越来越清晰。不幸的是，临床医生、执法人员、立法者和教育工作者缺乏一个框架和程序，使那些对社会最有风险的人能够与其他更良性的乱伦者（尽管如此，他们可能需要支持和治疗）区分开来。本论文将采取混合方法的方法，以提高我们的信仰系统的理解，不满和态度的乱伦社区使用有效的心理测量工具和访谈乱伦在不同阶段的参与与社区。以往研究的局限性突出表明，有必要让incel本身参与研究，以全面阐述incel的经验和核心脆弱性。这项研究将开发一个结构化的专业判断工具，用于对乱伦社区进行威胁评估，以帮助从业人员区分有暴力风险和没有暴力风险的乱伦社区，并确定早期干预的机会。

The incel community (a portmanteau of involuntary celibate) describe themselves as fundamentally unable to find a sexual or romantic relationship despite desiring one - a state known as inceldom. The group is associated with extreme misogyny and a widespread belief that their situation can only be improved by harming the out-group (attractive men or women). Direct incitements of violence against women have led the incel ideology to be described as violent extremism. In recent years, mass violence associated with the incel community has been increasing with over 50 cases since 2014. Additionally, forum users agree that incel-related attacks will become more frequent in the future. The potential for societal harm of the small group of incels who adopt the most violent manifestations of the incel subculture, glorifying incel killers and fantasizing about raping and inflicting violence towards society (Moskalenko et al., 2022) has become increasingly clear. Unfortunately, clinicians, law enforcement, lawmakers and educators are lacking a framework and process whereby those most at risk to society can be distinguished from other more benign incels (who may nevertheless be in need of support and treatment). This thesis will take a mixed-methods approach to improve our understanding of the belief systems, grievances and attitudes of the incel community using validated psychometric tools and interviews with incels at various stages of engagement with the community. The limitations of previous research highlight the need to involve incels themselves in research to gain a holistic formulation of incel experiences and core vulnerabilities. This research will develop a structured professional judgement tool for threat assessment of the incel community to help practitioners discern between incels who are and are not at risk of violence and identify opportunities for early intervention.