A quantitative risk framework to assess the impact of climate change on coal tip stability.

威尔士大约有2500个废弃的煤尖，其中327个被认为是高风险的。2020年2月，丹尼斯风暴期间的极端降雨导致了几次大型煤尖滑坡。虽然没有人员伤亡的报告，但财产受到广泛破坏。这些事件凸显了这些小费的低安全边际，并提出了考虑到气候变化对其长期稳定性的担忧。该项目旨在通过改进目前的风险评估来解决这一问题，目前的风险评估是定性的，不受触发行动的影响。定性风险框架有助于确定安全区域，但不太擅长区分另一端的风险。由于所有具有某些特征的地区通常只是被标记为高风险，而没有表明高风险类别中的相对风险。为了安全地补救这些提示，我们需要开发一个风险登记册，以便对提示进行排名，从而在最需要的地方进行投资和后续补救。这种方法需要一个量化框架，该框架要符合目的，就需要是动态的并考虑气候触发因素。该项目的具体目标包括：1.开发先进的动态定量煤端评估策略，可对天气预报做出实时响应，实现主动风险管理，确保安全.通过整合地理空间测绘技术、岩土工程数据以及当前和预测的气候数据，绘制和预测南威尔士山谷的滑坡风险。3.为该地区建立降雨阈值，以了解在降雨事件的强度和持续时间方面引发该地区山体滑坡的降雨水平。通过卫星数字高程模型（DEM）数据对比时间和提取体积变化，得到以往滑坡数据，包括发生日期和范围.该项目还试图了解滑坡与其他环境变量（如植被、坡度、土壤水分指数等）的前期条件之间是否存在任何相关性，并将这些相关性作为启发式知识，为边坡稳定性模型提供信息。将使用历史滑坡和气候观测进行校准。总体目标是建立一个模型，该模型可以评估整个地区煤尖条件未来变化的可能性，包括预测可能的滑坡位置和绘制土地扰动的程度，从而能够制定真正的风险登记册和主动维护。

Wales has approximately 2500 disused coal tips, including 327 considered high risk. In February 2020, extreme rainfall during Storm Dennis resulted in several large coal tip landslides. Although no casualties were reported, there was extensive damage to property. These events have highlighted the low safety margins of these tips and raised concerns about their long-term stability considering climate change. This project seeks to address this by improving current risk assessments which are currently qualitative and independent of triggering actions. Qualitative risk frameworks are useful for identifying safe regions, but not very good at distinguishing risk at the other end of the scale. As all regions with certain traits are generally just labelled as high risk with no indication of relative risk within the high-risk category. To safely remediate these tips, we need to develop a risk register enabling the ranking of tips thereby enabling investment and subsequent remediation where it is needed most. Such an approach necessitates a quantitative framework, which to be fit for purpose needs to be dynamic and account for climate triggers.Specific aims of this project include:1. The development of an advanced dynamic quantitative coal tip assessment strategy which can produce real-time responses to weather forecasts, enabling active risk management to ensure safety.2. Mapping and forecasting the risk of landslides in the South Wales valleys by integrating geospatial mapping techniques, geotechnical data, and current and predicted climate data. 3. Establish rainfall thresholds for the region to understand the rainfall levels that trigger landslides in the area in terms of both magnitude and duration of the rainfall event. Past landslides data including the dates occurred and the extents, will be obtained by comparing satellite digital elevation model (DEM) data compared time and extracting volume change.4. The project also seeks to understand whether there are any corelations between landslides and the antecedent conditions of the other environmental variables such as vegetation, slope aspect, soil water index etc. and use these correlations as a heuristic to inform a slope stability model. Which will be calibrated using historical landslides and climatic observations. The overall aim is a model which can assess the likelihood of future changes in coal tip conditions across a region including prediction of the possible landslide locations and mapping the extent of the land disturbances enabling the development of a true risk register and active maintenance.