Climate Change-Induced Natural Disasters and Terrorism in Civil Wars

气候变化和恐怖主义被广泛认为是当代对国际和平与安全的两个最重大的威胁。现有的研究表明，在活跃的叛乱和内战期间，恐怖主义是最激烈的（Belgioioso, 2018; Polo & Gonzales, 2020; Stanton, 2013），而那些最容易受到武装叛乱影响的国家通常是最没有能力减轻自然灾害的影响的（Slettebak, 2012）。然而，气候变化引起的自然灾害与内战中的恐怖主义之间的关系在现有的学术研究中仍处于研究阶段。全球恐怖主义数据库（GTD）将所有10个国家列为2022年受恐怖主义影响最严重的国家，这些国家在未来一年都极易受到生态危机的影响，因此对这些日益严重的威胁进行研究的紧迫性显而易见（IFHV, 2022）。本项目旨在通过调查这些全球安全挑战的交集来解决文献中的这一空白。我的理论是，在已经受到武装叛乱影响的地区，自然灾害会增加恐怖主义的战略生存能力，降低其相关成本，从而导致恐怖主义的加剧。然而，并非所有受内战和气候变化引起的自然灾害影响的地区都见证了恐怖主义的增加。例如，毗邻的缅甸北部若开邦（Rakhine）和钦邦（Chin）在2015年科曼（Komen）气旋袭击缅甸之前都有民族主义武装分子，而在热带风暴过后的几个月里，钦邦的人都放弃了恐怖主义，但随着阿拉干军（Arakan Army）和哈拉卡雅琴（Harakah al-Yaqin）等武装分子在该地区发动袭击，若开邦成为了恐怖主义暴力的地区热点。这种次国家差异值得进行实证调查，以了解恐怖主义成为武装持不同政见者更具吸引力的策略的条件。通过关注导致这些变化的不同背景因素，我的项目将是第一个调查自然灾害如何改变影响叛军战术选择并导致恐怖主义暴力的机制的项目。至关重要的是，虽然现有文献绝大多数关注自然灾害对国内冲突的影响，但我对针对非战斗人员的极端暴力的具体关注将借鉴对激进主义和恐怖主义的研究，在这两种人为威胁之间建立理论联系。此外，通过阐明自然灾害是叛军战术选择和恐怖主义暴力的一个新因素，我将为现有的和平与冲突研究文献提供经验证据，量化气候紧急情况的多方面和研究不足的影响。

Climate change and terrorism are widely recognised as two of the most significant contemporary threats to international peace and security. Existing research shows that terrorism is the most intense during active rebellions and civil wars (Belgioioso, 2018; Polo & Gonzales, 2020; Stanton, 2013) and that those nations most susceptible to armed insurrection are typically the least capable of mitigating the effects of a natural disaster (Slettebak, 2012). However, the relationship betweenclimate change-induced natural disasters and terrorism in civil wars remains largely under investigated in existing academic research. With all ten of countries listed by the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) as the most severely impacted by terror in 2022 identified as highly susceptible to ecological crises in the coming year, the urgency of research into these increasingly severe threats is clearly apparent (IFHV, 2022). This project sets out to address this gap in the literature by investigating the intersection of these global security challenges. I theorise that natural disasters will lead to an intensification of terrorism by increasing its strategic viability and decreasing its associated costs in regions already affected by armed insurrections. However, not all areas affected by civil war and climate change-induced natural disasters do witness increased terrorism. For example, the neighbouring Rakhine and Chin States of northern Myanmar both bore ethno-nationalist militants before the nation was struck by cyclone Komen in 2015, and while those in the Chin state abstained from terrorism in the months that followed the tropical storm, the Rakhine state became a regional hotspot for terrorist violence as militants like the Arakan Army and Harakah al-Yaqin initiated attacks across the region. This sub-national variation warrants empirical investigation to understand the conditions under which terrorism becomes a more attractive strategy for armed dissidents. By focusing on different contextual factors that contribute to these variations, my project will be the first to investigate how natural disasters alter the mechanisms that influence rebel tactical choices and lead to terrorist violence. Crucially, while the extant literature overwhelmingly focusses on the effects of natural disasters on intrastate conflict, my specific focus on extremest violence against non-combatants will draw from research on militant radicalisation and terrorism to forge theoretical links between these two anthropogenic threats. Moreover, by illuminating natural disasters as a new factor in rebel tactic selection and terrorist violence I will contribute to the existing peace and conflict studies literature with empirical evidence that quantifies the multifaceted and under researched effects of the climate emergency.