Proglacial landscape evolution with climate change across Jostedalsbreen, Norway

冰川和冰盖对气候变化高度敏感，它们将是整个世纪众多自然和社会因素变化的关键驱动力。虽然海平面上升无疑将是未来气候变化最严重的全球后果之一，但区域和地方规模的影响将因地貌和水文系统随后发生的变化而减轻，以及相关的社会后果。冰盖与山谷冰川的不同之处在于，它们覆盖的面积更大，面积也不同-这些冰川与海拔高度有着密切的关系，因为它们的大部分物质位于高原上，有几个出口冰川延伸到邻近的山谷中。因此，冰盖上部物质平衡的变化可能对出口冰川的动态响应产生非常迅速和深刻的影响。由于这样一个冰川系统的复杂性，目前的冰的几何形状和表面质量平衡的详细知识是必要的，以了解目前和未来的冰川变化，以及了解地貌和水文变化。必须了解山区地貌和水文系统的变化，以管理水电、灌溉和人类消费的可用水，冰川退缩将影响旅游和娱乐活动。关于冰冻圈物理变化和这种变化对周围自然和社会的影响的研究很少，而且往往限于个别冰川或某些影响。为了在区域范围内解决这一重要课题，该项目将研究欧洲大陆最大的冰块Jostedalsbreen（c。2006年为474平方公里）。冰帽周围有各种各样的社会利益，如水电，旅游，农业和供水，以及经常发生的自然灾害，如突发洪水，雪崩和泥石流，影响当地的基础设施，商业和家庭。这个项目很可能由三个部分组成，每个部分都是新颖的，但共同形成一个连贯和有影响力的论文。第一部分将利用现有的大量历史实地监测数据集以及遥感产品等，审议冰帽及其出口冰川、冰前地貌和/或冰川河流过去的变化。第二部分将通过广泛和深入的实地考察，包括冰川学，地貌学和水文学为基础的方法和技术，考虑当今的进程。第三部分将通过新的数值模拟或通过分析数值模拟产品来考虑冰川和河流的未来变化。

Glaciers and ice caps are highly sensitive to climate changes, and they will be key drivers of change for a multitude of natural and societal factors throughout the 21st century. Whilst sea-level rise will undoubtedly be one of the most severe global consequences of future climate changes, regional and local scale impacts will be mediated by subsequent changes in geomorphological and hydrological systems, and the associated societal consequences.Ice caps differ from valley glaciers in that they cover a larger area and have a different area-altitude relationship because a large proportion of their mass is located on a high plateau with several outlet glaciers extending into adjacent valleys. Consequently, changes in the mass balance of the upper part of the ice cap can have very rapid and profound consequences for the dynamic responses of the outlet glaciers. Due to the complexity of such a glacial system, detailed knowledge of the current ice geometry and surface mass balance is required in order to understand present and future glacier changes as well as for understanding geomorphological and hydrological changes. Changes in mountain geomorphological and hydrological systems must be understood to manage water availability for hydropower, irrigation and human consumption, and glacier retreat will impact tourism and recreational activities. Studies addressing both the physical changes in the cryosphere and the impact of such changes on the surrounding nature and society are few and often restricted to individual glaciers or certain impacts. To address this important topic on a regional scale, this project will study the largest ice mass in mainland Europe, Jostedalsbreen (c. 474 km2 in 2006) in southern Norway. The ice cap is surrounded by a variety of societal interests such as hydropower, tourism, agriculture and water supply, and with frequent natural hazards such as outburst floods, avalanches and slushflows affecting local infrastructure, business and homes.This project will most likely be composed around three parts, each novel and publishable in its own right, but together forming a coherent and impactful thesis. The first part will consider past changes to the ice cap and its outlet glaciers, the proglacial landscape and/or the glacier-fed rivers, using extensive historical field monitoring datasets exist as well as remote sensing products for example. The second part will consider present-day processes via extensive and intensive fieldwork, which can include glaciology, geomorphology and hydrology-based methods and techniques. The third part will consider future changes to the glaciers and rivers either via novel numerical modelling, or via analysis of numerical modelling products.