Optimisation of green hydrogen energy-vector systems under climate uncertainty

由于极端天气事件和环境退化的频率和严重程度增加，人为温室气体（GHG）排放已经使全球数十亿人付出了巨大的代价（政府间气候变化专门委员会，2023年;纽曼和诺伊，2023年）。温室气体排放量继续上升，2022年将达到新的最高水平。如果沿着这一轨迹继续下去，气候变化已经十分严重的影响将会加剧。迫切需要改变全球工业和生活方式的脱碳。绿色氨可以为多个全球系统的快速脱碳提供机会。该项目旨在提供进一步的研究，以评估绿色氨作为能源载体的可行性和竞争力。碳氢化合物衍生的氨已被用作氮肥和其他工业的关键成分超过100年。在过去的十年中，研究和投资一直在从电解产生的绿色氢（绿色氨）中构建氨，不仅是为了使化肥行业脱碳，而且还将氨视为潜在的绿色燃料或能源载体（Valera-Medina和Banares-Alcantara 2021）。特别是，随着国际海事组织商定了2050年净零排放目标，对绿色氨作为航运燃料的兴趣有所增加，因为技术经济模型显示，考虑到压缩氢气的成本，在大规模和远距离使用时，它应该比氢气便宜（Cui和Aziz，2023年）。与碳基绿色燃料如生物甲烷相比，绿色氨在放大潜力方面的限制也较少，因为它不需要土地密集型碳原料。在过去的两年里，我们的团队已经开发了一个详细的技术经济模型的绿色氨供应的航运（出版待定）。我的目标是建立在（Salmon和Bañares-Alcántara 2022）中开发的技术经济建模工作的基础上，创建一个多燃料能源系统模型，并利用它来研究气候不确定性下的最佳脱碳能源系统。据我所知，没有公开可用的空间显式模型存在的能源系统满足一组给定的能源需求配置文件的特定应用和优化跨能源输送方法，包括直接电力，电池和绿色氢，氨，甲烷和甲醇。在建模中纳入对气候不确定性的评估将是确定最具弹性的能源输送组合的关键。航运业提供了一个单一行业的例子，我的目标是回答这类问题：考虑到总体需求和系统弹性，与氨相比，氢在航运燃料中的渗透程度应该是多少？当长途运输使用氨时，使用氢进行本地运输是否会更有效？这项工作将为航运业脱碳提供更多见解，并可扩展到其他运输和工业部门的能源需求应用，为能源转型政策提供信息。该小组目前的工作已经导致与全球海事论坛，英国交通部和其他利益攸关方的项目。我们希望这些合作在哲学博士的发展中继续下去。本研究描述是对原提议标题“气候变化对海上风力生产绿色氨的影响”的扩展。该项目福尔斯位于EPSRC大楼内，这是一个绿色未来的研究领域。2023.“使用氨和甲醇的氢运输基础设施的技术经济分析”。International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 48（42）：15737-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.01.096.Intergovernmental气候变化专门委员会。2023.气候变化2021 -物理科学基础：第一工作组对政府间气候变化专门委员会第六次评估报告的贡献。剑桥大学出版社. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have already exacted a large cost on billions of people globally through increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events and environmental degradation (Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change 2023; Newman and Noy 2023). GHG emissions continue to rise, with 2022 marking a new maximum. Continuing on this trajectory, the already severe impacts of climate change will intensify. Urgent change is needed to decarbonize industry and lifestyles globally. Green ammonia could present an opportunity for rapid decarbonisation of multiple global systems. This project aims to deliver further research required to assess the feasibility and competitiveness of green ammonia as an energy vector. Hydrocarbon-derived ammonia has been used as a key ingredient of nitrogenous fertiliser and other industries for over 100 years. In the last decade research and investment has been building in ammonia from electrolysis-derived green hydrogen (green ammonia), not only to decarbonize the fertiliser industry but also considering ammonia as a potential green fuel or energy vector (Valera-Medina and Banares-Alcantara 2021). In particular, with the International Maritime Organisation having agreed 2050 net-zero targets, interest in green ammonia as a fuel for shipping has increased, as techno-economic modelling shows it should be cheaper than hydrogen for use at large scales and distances given the cost of compressing hydrogen (Cui and Aziz 2023). Green ammonia is also less limited in scale-up potential than carbon-based green fuels such as biomethane as it does not require land-intensive carbon feedstock. Over the past two years our team has developed a detailed techno-economic model of green ammonia supply for shipping (publication pending). I aim to build on the techno-economic modelling work developed in (Salmon and Bañares-Alcántara 2022) to create a multi-fuel energy system model, and use this to study optimal decarbonised energy systems under climate uncertainty. To my knowledge, no publicly available spatially-explicit model exists of an energy system satisfying a set of given energy demand profiles for specific applications and optimising across energy delivery methods including direct electrical, battery and green hydrogen, ammonia, methane and methanol. Including evaluations of climate uncertainty in the modelling will be key in determining the most resilient energy-delivery mix. Shipping provides a single-sector example of the type of question I aim to answer: accounting for overall demand and system resilience, what is the degree of penetration hydrogen should have compared to ammonia for shipping fuel? Will it be more efficient to run local shipping on hydrogen while longer distance shipping runs on ammonia? This work will provide additional insights for decarbonising the shipping sector, and be extendable to applications for energy demand of other transport and industrial sectors, informing policy for the energy transition. The current work of the group is already leading to projects with the Global Maritime Forum, the UK Department for Transport and other stakeholders. We expect these collaborations to continue in the evolution of the DPhil. This research description is an expansion of the original proposed title Effect of Climate Change on the Offshore Wind Production of Green Ammonia. This project falls within the EPSRC Building a green future research area.Cui, Jinyue, and Muhammad Aziz. 2023. 'Techno-Economic Analysis of Hydrogen Transportation Infrastructure Using Ammonia and Methanol'. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 48 (42): 15737-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.01.096.Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change. 2023. Climate Change 2021 - The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1st ed. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896