Efficient Emulation of Earth System Processes for Adaptation and Mitigation

气候模式模拟器是更复杂气候模式的简化表示，对IPCC越来越重要。这是因为模拟器可以快速运行，比复杂的地球系统模型（esm）快得多，并且灵活，例如，可以设置为复制现有esm的大规模行为。这意味着它们可以在概率上运行，对未来气候变化的所有不确定性进行采样，并适用于任何可能的排放情景，而不仅仅是在esm中分析的少数共享社会经济途径（ssp）。有限振幅脉冲响应（FaIR）仿真器用于IPCC《1.5摄氏度特别报告》（2018年）和第一工作组（2021年）和第三工作组（将于2022年发布）的第六次评估报告，以提供全球平均温度和辐射强迫预测，并且可以很容易地适应海平面上升。该项目将通过包括地球系统反馈来开发FaIR，这些反馈目前没有出现在模型中，如永久冻土、甲烷湿地和氮循环。这将涉及分析来自地球系统模型的模拟，并确定一个能够充分复制这些行为的简单框架。这些个别反馈的重要性可以通过将产出与IPCC第三工作组提供的情景数据库进行比较来评估，该工作组侧重于减缓气候变化的途径。此外，为了提供与政策相关的科学，FaIR可以与区域模拟器耦合，以确定不同变暖程度下世界重要地区发生极端天气事件的风险。该奖学金将与英国气象局的项目和目标密切相关，包括哈德利中心气候项目。该项目将直接有助于发展英国气象局简单的气候建模能力，以便能够对旨在实现巴黎协定目标的新情景进行快速评估。在这个项目中，学生将使用软件开发的最佳实践来开发模型。作为CASE项目的一部分，学生将有机会在英国气象局直接与英国气象局气候影响小组合作。还有可能与瑞士和奥地利的外部伙伴合作，将仿真器与综合评估模型联系起来。

Climate model emulators are simplified representations of more complex climate models and are becoming increasingly important to the IPCC. This is because emulators can be run quickly, much faster than complex Earth System models (ESMs), and flexibly, for example to be set up to replicate the large-scale behaviour of existing ESMs. This means they can be run probabilistically to sample the full range of uncertainty in future climate change and be applied to any conceivable emissions scenario and not just the handful of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that are analysed in ESMs. The Finite-amplitude Impulse Response (FaIR) emulator was used in the IPCC's Special Report on 1.5 degrees Celcius (2018) and Sixth Assessment Report for the contributions of Working Group 1 (2021) and Working Group 3 (forthcoming in 2022) to provide global mean temperature and radiative forcing projections, and can easily be adapted to sea-level rise. This project will develop FaIR by including Earth System feedbacks that are not currently present in the model, such as permafrost, methane wetlands and the nitrogen cycle. This will involve analysing simulations from Earth System models and determining a simple framework that can adequately replicate these behaviours. The importance of these individual feedbacks can be assessed by comparing the outputs to the database of scenarios provided in the IPCC Working Group 3 that focuses on pathways to mitigate climate change. In addition, in order to provide policy-relevant science, FaIR can be coupled to a regional emulator to determine the risks of extreme weather events in important world regions under different levels of warming. This studentship will link closely with and feed into Met Office projects and goals, including the Hadley Centre Climate Programme. The project will directly contribute to developing the Met Office's simple climate modelling capability to be able to provide rapid assessment of new scenarios designed to meet Paris agreement targets. Under the project, the student will use software development best practices to develop the model. As part of the CASE programme there is the opportunity to spend time at the Met Office to work directly with the Met Office Climate Impacts Team. There may also be potential to collaborate with external partners in Switzerland and Austria on linking the emulator to integrated assessment models.