Development of an operational solar wind model based on novel inner boundary conditions

该项目旨在开发和评估未来十年全面、全自动化的空间天气预报能力。我们将开发一个基于太阳附近新的边界条件的环境太阳风和日冕物质抛射(CME)的高效预报模型。该模型将预测整个内太阳系的太阳风/CME的速度和密度，而计算成本甚至是目前最有效的运行模型的一小部分。另一个新颖的方面是使用从太阳附近的日冕图像观测获得的边界条件。环境太阳风边界是由日冕密度的层析成像图驱动的(见https://solarphysics.aber.ac.uk/Archives/tomography/)，在操作扫描程序包(SWIMMRS4项目)的CorTom模块上的构建，以及凯恩·邦廷和休·摩根最近发表的工作。CME是根据最近在阿伯里斯特威斯开发的ACME-3D软件的结果注入到模型中的(见https://solarphysics.aber.ac.uk/Archives/cme_realtime/，发布待定)。将根据大量历史数据对该系统的性能进行全面评估。

This project aims to develop and assess a comprehensive, fully-automated, space weather forecasting capability for the coming decade. We will develop a highly-efficient forecasting model for ambient solar wind and coronal mass ejections (CME), based on novel boundary conditions near the Sun. The model will forecast solar wind/CME speeds and densities throughout the inner solar system, at a fraction of the computational cost of even the most efficient current operational models. Another novel aspect is the use of boundary conditions gained from coronagraph image observations near the Sun. The ambient solar wind boundary is driven by tomographical maps of the coronal density (see https://solarphysics.aber.ac.uk/Archives/tomography/), building on the CorTom module of the operational SWEEP package (SWIMMR S4 project), and recent published work by Kaine Bunting & Huw Morgan. The CMEs are injected into the model based on the results of the ACME-3D software, recently developed in Aberystwyth (see https://solarphysics.aber.ac.uk/Archives/cme_realtime/, publication pending). A comprehensive assessment of the system's performance will be made on a large set of historical data.