Extreme Heat and Inequity: Assessing Cooling Poverty, Exposure, and Root Causes

预计到2050年，气候变化和由此产生的极端高温将使制冷需求增加两倍。在这种情况下，缺乏获得负担得起的冷却，广泛地称为冷却贫困，提出了一个重要的，但整体上尚未充分探讨的问题。此外，由于缺乏解决不同维度的降温贫困的方法，在颗粒级别上确定关键热点和脆弱性程度变得具有挑战性。本研究旨在解决一个关于不同尺度制冷能源贫困的基本问题：制冷贫困热点在哪里？谁是最脆弱的？为什么这种贫困持续存在？回答这个问题的第一部分将侧重于确定在全球变暖1.5至2度的情况下，全球贫困降温的高风险地区。这些地区将通过将降温日数（cdd）预测与人口和GDP数据进行整合和绘制，并根据共同的社会经济途径（ssp）提供信息。所使用的数据来自climateprediction.net，在时空细节方面是最精细的。研究的第二部分将侧重于确定谁是最脆弱的，以及如何从表征冷却脆弱性的关键因素中得出一个指数。一项全面的文献综述将为研究冷却贫困的维度提供信息，这些维度将被整合到一个新的冷却能源贫困指数（CEPI）中。然后，CEPI将应用于高风险地区，在区域一级定位和描述特定热点。研究的第三部分也是最后一部分，从之前的宏观层面的定量方法发展到对选定热点的微观层面的定性检查，以研究为什么最脆弱的人会经历冷却贫困，以及流行策略如何影响这些脆弱性。这个定性调查将使用二手数据和通过调查、研讨会和访谈收集的主要数据来回答这些问题。总的来说，这项研究将对世界产生积极的影响，通过发展一种理解，导致识别、描述和减轻制冷能源贫困，特别是考虑到极端高温威胁的多个可持续发展目标。利用来自牛津大学马丁学院的未来冷却计划和史密斯学院企业与环境的跨学科专业知识，该项目体现了EPSRC对跨学科研究合作的承诺。该研究与EPSRC的重点领域保持一致，特别是“最终用途能源需求”及其子主题“热研究”、“能源需求”和“数字和信息技术”。该项目将对这些研究主题作出重大而深远的贡献，通过确定高风险地区、制定衡量脆弱性的指数和研究制冷贫困的根本原因，对制冷贫困进行全面评估。从本质上讲，该项目不仅解决了可持续冷却的一个重要方面，而且有助于理解气候变化背景下未来能源需求的维度，与EPSRC的战略研究重点保持一致。

Climate change and resulting rising extreme heat are projected to triple the demand for cooling by 2050. Within this context, the lack of access to affordable cooling, broadly referred to as cooling poverty, presents a significant yet holistically under-explored issue. Furthermore, with the lack of approaches that tackle the different dimensions of cooling poverty, it has become challenging to identify critical hotspots and the degree of vulnerability at a granular level. This research aims to address a fundamental question on cooling energy poverty across different scales: where do the cooling poverty hotspots exist, who are the most vulnerable, and why does such poverty persist? The first part of answering this question will focus on identifying the global high-risk regions for cooling poverty in a 1.5- and 2-degree warming world. These regions will be identified by integrating and mapping projections of cooling degree days (CDDs) with population and GDP data, informed by shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). The data used, from climateprediction.net, is among the most granular available in terms of spatio-temporal detail.The second part of the study will focus on identifying who are the most vulnerable and how can an index be derived from key factors that characterise cooling vulnerability. A comprehensive literature review will inform the dimensions of cooling poverty examined, which will be integrated into a novel Cooling Energy Poverty Index (CEPI). CEPI will then be applied to the high-risk regions to locate and characterise specific hotspots at a regional level. The third and final part of the study progresses from previous macro-level quantitative approaches to a micro-level qualitative examination of the selected hotspots to study why do the most vulnerable experience cooling poverty, and how do prevalent strategies affect these vulnerabilities. This qualitative investigation will use both secondary data and primary data collected via surveys, workshops, and interviews to answer these questions. Together, the research will make a positive impact to the world by developing an understanding that leads to identifying, characterizing, and mitigating cooling energy poverty, particularly in light of the multiple sustainable development goals that extreme heat threatens. Leveraging the interdisciplinary expertise from the Oxford Martin School's Future of Cooling Programme and Smith School Enterprise and Environment, the project embodies EPSRC's commitment to collaborate in cross-disciplinary research.The research aligns with the EPSRC focus areas, particularly with "end-use energy demand" and with its sub-themes of "heat research," "energy demand" and "'digital and information technologies." The project will make a significant and far-reaching contribution in these research themes through its holistic approach in assessing the cooling poverty by identifying high-risk regions, developing an index to measure vulnerability, and examining the underlying causes of cooling poverty. In essence, this project not only addresses a vital aspect of sustainable cooling but also contributes significantly to understanding the dimensions of future energy demand in the context of climate change, aligning with EPSRC's strategic research priorities.