How do ecological processes shape the transmission and severity of disease in humans

“生态过程可以塑造人类和人群中的疾病动态。例如，在生态系统一级，昆虫媒介和替代宿主的分布和丰度可以决定虫媒病毒在人类中暴发的频率和严重程度。在个体水平上，宿主相关（如肠道或呼吸）微生物群的生态动态影响宿主是否患有肠易激病、哮喘、关节炎、肥胖和自闭症等疾病。需要数学和统计模型来理解机制、预测结果和计划干预措施。例如，生态系统模型可以预测气候或土地利用变化如何可能影响病原体和媒介密度、病原体与宿主的相互作用以及疾病流行。群落动态模型预测微生物组的轨迹，从而预测个体疾病的进展。了解疾病或爆发的可能动态可以让从业者预防或为最坏的情况做好准备。在这个博士课程中，学生将掌握一系列的定量方法，并获得各种生物系统的经验，因为他们开发模型来回答三个不同的问题：由土地利用变化驱动的病媒群落密度和物种组成的变化将如何影响虫媒病毒病在人类中的流行？学生将开发Ross-MacDonald模型，该模型允许多种宿主和媒介（例如，2）以及病原体对宿主和媒介物种的适应。（顾问：吉尔曼、沃尔顿）噬菌体如何塑造微生物群的多样性和稳定性，这又如何影响哮喘的进展？该学生将以Gilman和Papadopoulos开发的Lotka-Volterra模型为基础，根据Anna Karenina原理，了解噬菌体如何通过微生物群影响哮喘。（顾问：吉尔曼、帕帕多普洛斯）气候变化将如何影响真菌疾病在人类中的分布？学生将开发机械和现象学（如气候包络）模型5，根据感染频率的历史数据预测真菌疾病的未来分布，考虑到历史数据在空间和时间上的不均匀收集。（顾问：Gilman， Bromley）

"Ecological processes can shape disease dynamics in humans and human populations. For example, at the ecosystem level, the distribution and abundance of insect vectors and alternative hosts can determine the frequency and severity of arbovirus outbreaks among humans. At the individual level, the ecological dynamics of host-associated (eg, gut or respiratory) microbiomes influence whether hosts suffer from outcomes including irritable bowel disease, asthma, arthritis, obesity, and autism1. Mathematical and statistical models are needed to understand mechanisms, predict outcomes, and plan interventions. For example, ecosystem models can predict how climate or land use change are likely to impact pathogen and vector densities, pathogen interactions with hosts, and disease prevalence. Community dynamics models predict the trajectories of microbiomes and thus the progression of disease in individuals. Understanding the likely dynamics of diseases or outbreaks can allow practitioners to prevent or prepare for worst-case scenarios.In this PhD, the student will student will master a range of quantitative approaches and gain experience with a variety of biological systems as they develop models to answer three distinct questions:1. How will changes in the density and species composition of vector communities driven by land use change affect the prevalence of arbovirus diseases in humans? The student will develop Ross-MacDonald models that allow for multiple species of hosts and vectors (eg, 2) and for pathogen adaptation to host and vector species. (Advisors: Gilman, Walton)2. How do bacteriophages shape the diversity and stability of microbiomes, and how does this affect asthma progression? The student will build on Lotka-Volterra models developed by Gilman and Papadopoulos to understand how phages impact asthma via the microbiome under the Anna Karenina Principle3,4. (Advisors: Gilman, Papadopoulos)3. How will climate change affect the distribution of fungal disease in humans? The student will develop mechanistic and phenomenological (eg, climate envelope) models5 to predict future distribution of fungal disease working from historical data on infection frequency, accounting for the uneven collection of historical data over space and time. (Advisors: Gilman, Bromley)"