Population and Economic Recovery in Coastal Aceh: Aid and Village Institutions

该项目将开发和测试一系列关于经济，社会和政治过程的相互关联的理论，这些理论影响自然灾害后人口和经济资产大规模损失的恢复。一个关键因素是评估外部援助的影响和援助提供的形式对当地行为、网络和机构以及长期增长和不平等的影响。分析的重点是印度尼西亚亚齐省沿海村庄，这些村庄受到2004年海啸的不同影响，并将利用一个由111个村庄和550名渔船所有者组成的小组数据集（2005年开始），该数据集包含关于当地经济和政治机构、村庄与外部机构的互动、人口变化和所受创伤的丰富细节。目前正在收集使用先前承诺的资源进行的下一轮调查，这将增加100个村庄和200个新的船主。我们建议在2005年至2013年期间再进行两轮调查，设立一个小组。该项目汇集了美国和印度尼西亚社区发展、健康、环境、政治经济和不平等问题的专家。 村庄人口和健康的恢复不仅与人口不同阶层和潜在移徙者能否获得个人经济机会有着重要联系，而且与当地村庄能够调动当地和外部资源进行重建的程度有着重要联系。动员的核心是援助进程。这一应用强调了迄今为止在恢复进程中似乎发挥了重要作用的四个核心权衡：（a）由外部援助机构“收养”一个村庄以获得更多援助，而不是丧失地方自治程度和动员当地志愿劳动力的能力;（B）通过援助机构在更公平的基础上分配资产，而不是根据专门知识的差异进行分配;（c）技术能力和与援助和政府恢复机构打交道的能力更强的村庄领导人，而不是在当地经济和社交网络中处于有利地位的领导人;（d）将现代机构纳入援助进程，如正式授予资产所有权，这可能会增加私人投资的回报，但会损害公共资源的投资。 本项目将在审查村庄和渔业公司恢复进程的背景下，调查这些取舍和援助进程的效力。它将调查不平等模式的重新出现，海啸的破坏和援助过程在这些模式中产生了强烈的平等效应。它将研究大规模的人口损失、个人创伤、援助及其提供形式、村领导人的损失和原有的社交网络如何影响调动地方对公共资源的投资的能力。它将审查援助在实现“可持续发展”方面的效力，特别注重根据村庄的社会和政治进程，采用现代市场体制取代传统体制。最后，它将研究渔业公司的恢复是如何受到援助过程，监管和创伤的影响。公共卫生相关性本申请的研究将有助于分析和设计有效的援助反应，以应对自然灾害后低收入地区人口和经济资产的大规模损失。这项工作的重点是如何以最佳方式整合外部和内部资源和机构，通过长期、公平和可持续的经济增长促进人口复苏和健康。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project will develop and test a series of inter-connected theories about the economic, social, and political processes that influence the recovery from large-scale losses of population and economic assets following a natural disaster. A key element is to evaluate the impact of external aid and the form of aid delivery on local behaviors, networks and institutions, as well as long term growth and inequality. The analysis focuses on coastal villages in Aceh, Indonesia, that were differentially affected by the 2004 tsunami, and will make use of a panel data set (initiated in 2005) of 111 villages and 550 fishing boat owners that contains rich detail on local economic and political institutions, interaction of villages with external institutions, population change, and trauma suffered. A subsequent round of the survey using previously committed resources is now being collected, which adds another 100 villages and 200 new boat owners. We propose two additional rounds of the survey, creating a panel from 2005 to 2013. The project brings together USA and Indonesian experts on issues of community development, health, the environment, political economy, and inequality. Recovery of village population and health is importantly linked not just to the availability of individual economic opportunities to different strata of the population and to potential migrants, but to the extent to which the local village is able to mobilize both local and external resources to rebuild. Central in mobilization is the aid process. This application emphasizes four central tradeoffs that appear to have played an important role in the recovery process thus far: a) the "adoption" of a village by an external aid agency to garner more aid versus a loss in the degree of local autonomy and ability to marshal local volunteer labor; b) allocation of assets through aid agencies on a more equitable basis versus allocation based on differences in expertise; c) village leadership with greater technical competence and ability to deal with aid and government recovery agencies versus leadership that is well positioned within local economic and social networks; and d) incorporation of modern institutions as part of the aid process such as formal titling of assets that may increase returns to private investment at the expense of investment in public resources. This project will investigate these trade-offs and the efficacy of the aid process in the context of examining the recovery process of villages and fishing firms. It will investigate the reemergence of patterns of inequality, where the destruction of the tsunami and the aid process had a strong equalizing effect. It will study how the ability to marshal local investment in public resources is affected by wide-scale population losses, personal trauma, aid and its form of delivery, losses of village leaders, and pre-existing social networks. It will examine the efficacy of aid in achieving "sustainable development," with a particular focus on the adoption of modern market institutions to supplant traditional institutions, given village social and political processes. Finally it will study how recovery of fishing firms is affected by the aid process, regulation, and trauma. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE The research in this application would facilitate the analysis and design of effective aid responses to large scale losses in population and economic assets in low-income areas following a natural disaster. The focus of this work is on how external and internal resources and institutions can best be integrated to promote population recovery and health through long-term equitable and sustainable economic growth.