Application of Fuzzy Reasoning Methodology to Railway Safety Risk Assessment Process

铁路安全风险分析是一项非常复杂的课题，其中决定安全的因素很多，其中包括人为错误。目前使用的许多铁路安全风险评价技术都是比较成熟的工具。然而，在许多情况下，由于缺乏安全风险数据或现有安全风险数据涉及高度不确定性，这些工具的应用可能不会产生令人满意的结果。因此，必须开发新的安全风险分析方法，以便在不能有效或高效地应用这些成熟工具的各种环境中，以可接受的方式确定主要危险并评估相关风险。本项目研究将确定当前铁路安全风险评估工具和实现安全风险评估的一般性问题，并强调克服这些问题的可能方法(即使用模糊推理方法处理不完整和/或不一致的数据和信息)。确定了实现铁路安全风险评价的首要问题是决策过程。因此，拟议的研究还将探索决策时围绕这些问题的复杂问题，并开发系统的综合方法，如层次分析(AHP)技术。这种系统的综合方法将有助于铁路运营和维护的决策，并将在最早阶段提供给培训操作员、维修工程师和管理人员以及决策者，这也将有助于进一步促进铁路工业企业内部的安全风险思维。这项建议的目的是开发铁路安全风险评估模型和软件计算工具，以支持铁路安全风险分析，以显示是否符合安全目标，并做出维护和未来投资决策。本研究项目将深入调查铁路安全风险的主要问题，并与行业合作伙伴一起在真实环境中测试所提出的安全风险评估模型和工具，以评估运营和维护计划，并使用模糊推理方法(FRA)和层次分析(AHP)技术进行诊断，从而将铁路安全风险评估方法确立为全国乃至国际上的优秀水平。这将为铁路安全风险分析员、操作员和工程师和管理人员提供改进安全管理和制定安全标准的方法和工具。

Railway safety risk analysis is a very complicated subject where safety is determined by numerous factors including human error. Many railway safety risk assessment techniques currently used are comparatively mature tools. However, in many circumstances, the application of these tools may not give satisfactory results due to the lack of safety risk data or the high level of uncertainty involved in the safety risk data available. It is therefore essential to develop new safety risk analysis methods to identify major hazards and assess the associated risks in an acceptable way in various environments where such mature tools cannot be effectively or efficiently applied. this project study will identify current railway safety risk assessment tools and generic problems to achieving safety risk assessment, and highlight possible ways of overcoming them (i.e. using fuzzy reasoning approach to deal with data and information incomplete and/or inconsistent). The most important problem to achieving railway safety risk assessment has been identified as the decision-making process. The proposed research will also therefore explore the complex issues surrounding the problems at the time of decision-making and develop systematic synthesis method such as analytical hierarchy process (AHP) techniques. This systematic synthesis method will facilitate decision-making in railway operation and maintenance which will be made available to train operators, maintenance engineers and managers, and decision-makers at the earliest stages, which will also further help to promote safety risk thinking within railway industrial companies. The purpose of this proposal is to develop railway safety risk assessment models and a soft computing tool to support railway safety risk analysis in order to show compliance with safety targets and to make maintenance and future investment decisions. This research project will investigate in depth the principal railway safety risk issues and test the proposed safety risk assessment models and tool in a real environment with the industrial partners for appraising operation and maintenance schedules, also diagnosing, using fuzzy reasoning approach (FRA) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) techniques, which will establish the railway safety risk assessment methodology as an excelenet national, and indeed intational, level. This will provide railway safety risk analysts, operators and engineers and managers with a method and tool to improve their safety management and set safety standards.