Modelling Analysis of Gun crime NETworks (MAGNET)

拟议的可行性研究的目的是探讨使用不同的建模技术来帮助利益攸关方在打击枪支犯罪方面作出决策的好处。第一步是准确地表示可用于思维导图的枪支犯罪现象的综合知识。我们将重点关注三个组成部分，枪支、枪支使用者和受害者。将通过访问包括警察数据库在内的各种来源并采访帮派成员、罪犯、警察、地方政府代表和社区行动团体等关键线人来获得数据。第二步是将得到的思维导图转化为枪支犯罪所涉及的关键过程的模拟模型，探索贝叶斯网络、元胞自动机和流行病学建模等建模方法。在整个研究过程中，我们将与利益攸关方密切合作，以确定用于打击枪支犯罪决策的模拟模型的可用性。

The aim of the proposed feasibility study is to explore the benefits of using different modelling techniques to aid stakeholder's decision making in tackling gun crime. The first step is to accurately represent the combined knowledge of the gun crime phenomenon that is available into mind maps. We will focus on three components, the gun, the gun user and the victim. Data will be obtained by accessing a variety of sources including police databases, and interviewing key informants such as gang members, offenders, police officers, local government representatives and community action groups. The second step involves the translation of the resultant mind maps into simulation models of the key processes involved in gun crime, exploring modelling methodologies such as Bayesian Networks, Cellular Automata and epidemiological modelling. Throughout the study, we will work closely with stakeholders to determine the usability of the simulation models for decision making regarding the tackling of gun crime.