Spatial and Temporal Effects of Alcohol Compliance Checks

描述（由申请人提供）：青少年饮酒与交通事故、自杀和袭击有关。防止青少年饮酒和经历这些问题的一个有希望的方法是防止青少年获得酒精。遵守最低饮酒年龄试验（CMDA）是一项为期五年的多社区准实验试验，旨在检查针对酒精场所的两项干预措施的有效性——店主/经理培训和执法合规检查——以减少向未成年青少年出售酒精的倾向。结果表明，执法合规检查对向未成年青少年出售酒精的倾向有直接影响（减少17%的倾向），但根据机构的类型，这种影响在三个月内完全或50%衰减。我们建议进行一项为期两年的研究，分析CMDA试验的次要数据，以评估是否存在一种执法合规检查模式，可以最大限度地减少向未成年人出售非法酒精的检查效果。我们将使用最先进的地理空间技术和层次回归模型来评估：(1)酒精场所向未成年青少年出售酒精的倾向的空间自相关性；(2)执法合规检查在多大程度上影响了相邻酒精场所向未成年人销售的倾向；(3)合规检查跨越时间和空间的同时影响，包括两者可能产生的交互效应。统计模型的结果将用于生成一个或多个执法合规检查模式，以优化这些检查在防止未成年人销售方面的效果。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Alcohol use among youth is related to traffic crashes, suicides and assaults. A promising approach for preventing youth from consuming alcohol and experiencing these problems is to prevent youth from obtaining alcohol. The Complying with the Minimum Drinking Age Trial (CMDA) was a five-year multi-community quasi- experimental trial designed to examine the effectiveness of two interventions targeting alcohol establishments-owner/manager training and law enforcement compliance checks-to reduce the propensity to sell alcohol to underage youth. Results showed that law enforcement compliance checks have an immediate effect on propensity to sell alcohol to underage youth (reducing the propensity by 17%), but this effect decays either completely or by 50% depending on the type of establishment, within a three-month period. We propose to conduct a two-year study to analyze secondary data from the CMDA trial to assess whether a pattern of law enforcement compliance checks exists that maximizes effects of the checks for reducing illegal alcohol sales to underage youth. We will use state-of-the-art geospatial techniques and hierarchical regression models to assess: (1) spatial autocorrelation of propensity for alcohol establishments to sell alcohol to underage youth; (2) extent to which effects of law enforcement compliance checks diffuse across space to impact the propensity of neighboring alcohol establishments to sell to underage youth; and (3) simultaneous impact of compliance checks across both time and space, including possible interactive effects of the two. Results from the statistical models will be used to generate a pattern or patterns of law enforcement compliance checks that optimize the effects of these checks on preventing underage sales. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Communities are interested in identifying cost-efficient, research-based methods for reducing youth access to alcohol, and subsequently reducing alcohol problems and related costs. Law enforcement compliance checks have been identified as an effective deterrent to sales of alcohol to underage youth. Findings from the proposed study will indicate how far the deterrent effects of compliance checks diffuse geospatially, providing guidance on how many establishments need to be checked within specific neighborhoods and at what frequency.