Dynamics of gas hydrates in polar marine environments.

地球上几乎一半的碳储存在天然气水合物和相关的浅层天然气矿床中。数值模型预测，这一储层是高度移动的，逃逸的气体具有加速气候变化的巨大潜力，在短时间内释放多达2000 Gt的甲烷。由于甲烷是一种强有力的温室气体，它将导致进一步的全球变暖。北极的天然气水合物最容易受到未来气候变化的影响，因为（1）据预测，北极的气温上升速度将快于低纬度地区;（2）天然气水合物稳定区与海底的交点位于快速变暖的地表沃茨范围内;（3）天然气水合物脆弱区上方的水柱比温暖海洋中的小，有利于更有效地将温室气体输送到大气层。我们提出了一个跨学科的财团，通过地震方法来量化目前的天然气水合物的数量，测量目前从海底到大气的甲烷通量，检测冰后期变暖对天然气水合物系统的影响，并预测一系列未来温度变化对天然气水合物的影响。这一信息将有助于对北极天然气水合物的流动性进行详细评估，并将大大减少气候建模所涉及的不确定性。

Almost half of the Earth's carbon is stored in gas hydrates and related shallow gas deposits. Numerical models predict that this reservoir is highly mobile and that escaping gas has a significant potential to accelerate climate change releasing as much as 2000 Gt of methane over a short period of time. As methane is a potent greenhouse gas it would course further global warming. Arctic gas hydrates are most vulnerable to future climate change because (1) it is predicted that temperatures will increase faster in the Arctic than in low latitudes (2) the intercept of the gas hydrate stability zone with the seabed is within the reach of fast warming surface waters and (3) the water column above the vulnerable zone of gas hydrates is smaller than in warmer oceans facilitating more efficient transport of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. We propose an interdisciplinary consortium to quantify the present amount of gas hydrates through seismic methods, to measure current methane flux from the seabed to the atmosphere, to detect the effects of postglacial warming on the gas hydrate system, and to predict the effect of a range of future temperature changes on the gas hydrates. This information will allow a detailed assessment of the mobility of Arctic gas hydrates and it will significantly decrease the uncertainties involved in climate modelling.