Ocean teleconnections between Antarctica and the Equatorial Pacific and Atlantic.

众所周知，赤道海气系统在厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)现象等全球气候事件中起着关键作用。现在有令人信服的证据表明，南极的变化可以强烈而迅速地影响赤道海洋和ENSO循环。观测表明，南极和赤道之间存在着统计上显著的相关(遥相关)，超前和滞后数个月。模式模拟有力地表明，这些遥相关是特定类型的海浪在南大洋和赤道之间传播的结果。这些波被称为行星波，它们的存在要归功于地球的自转。ENSO对许多人的社会和经济福祉至关重要，对欧洲的社会和经济福祉也是间接的。因此，提高ENSO的可预测性及其影响，如严重的洪水、干旱和渔业中断，可能带来巨大的科学和社会经济利益。然而，目前的ENSO预报系统没有考虑到南大洋的影响。我们建议汇集国家海洋学中心、普罗德曼海洋实验室和英国南极调查局的大量专门知识，以确定南大洋对赤道太平洋变率(包括ENSO)的影响，并寻找海洋行星波在南极和赤道之间传播的观测证据，以应对南极条件的变化。我们将通过使用最先进的海洋数值模型，结合基于卫星的海冰和海面高度观测以及现场水文数据来实现这一点。

It is well known that the equatorial ocean-atmosphere system plays a key role in global climate events such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. There is now compelling evidence that changes in the Antarctic can strongly and quickly affect the equatorial ocean and the ENSO cycle. Observations demonstrate statistically significant correlations (teleconnections) between the Antarctic and the Equator with leads and lags of order months. Model simulations strongly suggest that these teleconnections are a result of propagation of particular types of ocean waves between the Southern Ocean and the Equator. These waves, known as planetary waves, owe their existence to the Earth's rotation. ENSO is of fundamental importance to the social and economic well being of large numbers of people and indirectly to that of Europe. There are therefore huge potential scientific and socioeconomic benefits from increased predictability of ENSO and its impacts such as severe flooding, droughts and disruption of fisheries. However present ENSO prediction systems take no account of Southern Ocean influences. We propose to pool the considerable expertise of the National Oceanography Centre, the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory and the British Antarctic Survey in order to establish the influence of the Southern Ocean on Equatorial Pacific variability (including ENSO) and to search for observational evidence of ocean planetary wave propagation between the Antarctic and the Equator in response to changes in Antarctic conditions. We will achieve this by using a state-of-the-art numerical ocean model in conjunction with satellite-based observations of sea-ice and sea-surface height and in situ hydrographic data.