Novel Ice Characterisation Experiment - Phase 1 (NICE-1)

冰在融化！从1979年到2007年，北极夏季海冰面积减少了一半，从800多万平方公里减少到400多万平方公里。此外，潜艇的测量表明，其厚度已经下降了约40%。至于未来，政府间气候变化专门委员会（气专委）最新报告中使用的所有气候预测模型一致认为，这种减少将继续下去，到本世纪末，北极夏季可能没有冰。然而，观测表明，这些模型在空间和时间上都严重低估了这种减少，北极可能早在2040年就成为无冰区。这些模型是错误的，因为我们不完全了解海冰是如何生长、移动和衰变的。我们对此一无所知的一个原因是，海冰的性质是不断变化的，受当地环境条件（如气温、积雪深度、海洋温度等）变化的影响。我们根本没有足够的测量数据，分布在整个北极地区，一年四季，来完善我们的理解，建立和测试更好的模型。这部分是由于成本、后勤困难和缺乏人力的综合因素，部分是因为我们还没有廉价、简单和可靠的自动仪器，可以大量分布在北极周围。我们建议开发和部署这样的仪器，包括垂直传感器链，可以很容易地和机会主义地部署通过冰未经训练的操作员。将使用廉价的卫星通信方法将传感器数据传回实验室。传感器本身将由新型温度测量芯片组成，通过添加可控加热元件进行修改，这将产生关于雪-空气，雪-冰和冰水界面位置（以及冰厚度）的数据，通过冰的热通量以及电流的估计。这些测量结果将用于改进现有的海冰及其与海洋和大气相互作用的模型：因此，它们将在阐明海冰与全球气候变化之间的相互作用方面发挥重要作用。该提案寻求资金，以开发和建立六条链，在北极部署这些链，从这些链收集至少一年的数据，并支持首席科学家开展这些活动以及随后的数据分析和建模。这一分析和建模将与该领域的其他领导机构（例如伦敦大学学院极地观测和建模中心以及美国寒冷地区研究和工程实验室）合作进行。在此过程中，它将利用NERC在北极观测方面的现有投资，这些投资是通过ASBO-IPY和CryoSat等方案提供资金的。

The ice is melting! Between 1979 and 2007 the summer sea ice extent in the Arctic has halved, from over 8 million square km to just over 4 million square km. Moreover, measurements from submarines suggest that its thickness has plummeted by some 40%. As to the future, there is unanimous agreement between all the climate prediction models used in the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that this reduction will continue, and that the Arctic could be ice free in summer by the end of this century. However, observations suggest that these models are significantly under-representing this reduction, in both space and time, and that the Arctic could become ice free as early as 2040. The models are wrong because we do not fully understand how sea ice grows, moves and decays. One reason for our ignorance is that the properties of sea ice are constantly evolving, driven by changes in local environmental conditions such as air temperature, snow depth, ocean temperature and so on. We simply do not have enough measurements, spread out over the Arctic and throughout the year, to refine our understanding and build and test better models. This is partly because of the combination of cost, difficult logistics and lack of man-power, and partly because we do not yet have cheap, simple and reliable automatic instruments that can be scattered round the Arctic in large numbers. We propose to develop and deploy such instruments, consisting of vertical chains of sensors that can be easily and opportunistically deployed through the ice by untrained operators. Inexpensive satellite communications methods will be used to transmit the sensor data back to the laboratory. The sensors themselves will consist of novel temperature measurement chips, modified by the addition of a controllable heating element, which will yield data on the position of the snow-air, snow-ice and ice-water interfaces (and therefore ice thickness), thermal fluxes through the ice, and estimates of currents. These measurements will be used to improve existing models of sea ice and its interaction with ocean and atmosphere: as such they will play an important role in elucidating the interaction between sea ice and global climate change. This proposal seeks funding to develop and build six chains, to deploy them in the Arctic, to collect data from them for at least one year, and to support the lead scientist in these activities and in the subsequent data analysis and modelling. This analysis and modelling will take place in collaboration with other organizations (e.g. the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling at UCL and Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory in the US) that are leaders in the field. In so doing, it will build on NERC's existing investment in Arctic observation, funded through programmes such as ASBO-IPY and CryoSat.