Effects of Alcohol Control Policies on Violent Crime: A Time-Series Analysis

描述(申请人提供)：暴力犯罪给受害者、他们的家人和社会带来了巨大的代价。经常被认为是暴力犯罪的潜在原因的一个因素是使用/滥用酒精。统计数据显示，2003年美国城市中约有一半的被捕者最近酗酒，而美国1993年的数据显示，在事件发生时，被判殴打和谋杀罪名的人中，近一半人正在饮酒。尽管酒精使用与暴力犯罪之间存在很强的正相关关系，但迄今为止关于酒精管制政策对暴力犯罪影响的证据令人惊讶地有限，研究结果喜忧参半。本申请旨在研究1980年S和1990年S实施的四项不同酒精控制政策对纽约市暴力犯罪的影响。我们将审查四种不同类型的暴力犯罪，并将结果与非暴力财产犯罪政策的效果进行比较。我们将应用现代时间序列计量经济学技术，这些技术从未应用于酒精政策/犯罪问题，并将解决一些阻碍大多数先前研究的方法论问题。具体地说，我们检查纽约市的高频(每月)汇总数据，以：1)调查在我们的时间序列期间实施的酒精政策与三种不同酒精饮料(啤酒、葡萄酒和烈酒)的酒精消费之间的关系，以及酒精消费的综合衡量标准。2)利用每月时间序列数据，审查23年期间(1983年至2006年)酒精消费与暴力(和财产)犯罪之间的关系，以解决酒精消费增加(减少)是否会导致暴力犯罪增加(减少)的问题。这些将导致我们的关键分析：3)这些与酒精相关的政策与暴力犯罪活动程度之间的联系。(3)中的分析将涵盖更长的时间跨度(1970年至2006年)。这项研究将为酒精控制政策作为控制暴力犯罪行为的一种手段的有效性提供证据，并将对酒精和犯罪政策产生影响。 公共卫生相关性：尽管酒精消费与暴力行为之间的正相关关系已经确立，但酒精管制政策是否会影响暴力犯罪仍存在相当大的不确定性。这项研究的目的是考察酒精政策的变化是否影响酒精总消费量，酒精消费的变化是否影响暴力行为，以及酒精政策的变化是否影响暴力行为。这一结果将为公共政策提供信息，说明减少饮酒和暴力行为的最佳方式。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Violent crime imposes enormous costs on victims, their families, and society. One factor that has been frequently cited as a potential causal factor in violent crime is the use/abuse of alcohol. Statistics indicate that about half of arrestees in US Cities in 2003 engaged in recent binge drinking, while US data from 1993 indicate that almost half of those convicted on assault and murder charges had been drinking at the time of the incident. Despite the strong positive correlation between alcohol use and violent crime, evidence to date on the effects of alcohol control policies on violent crime is surprisingly limited, and findings are mixed. This application aims to examine the impact of four different alcohol control policies which were implemented in the 1980's and 1990's on violent crime in New York City. We will examine four different types of violent crimes and compare the results to the effects of the policies on non-violent property crimes. We will apply modern time-series econometric techniques that have never been applied to the alcohol policy/crime question, and which will address some of the methodological issues which have hampered most prior research. Specifically, we examine high-frequency (monthly) aggregate data for New York City to: 1) Investigate the relationship between the alcohol policies implemented during our time series and alcohol consumption for three different alcoholic beverages: beer, wine, and spirits, plus a combined measure of alcohol consumption. 2) Examine the relationship between alcohol consumption and violent (and property) crime over a twenty-three year time period (1983 through 2006) using monthly time series data, to address the question of whether an increase (decrease) in alcohol consumption results in an increase (decrease) in violent crime. These will lead to our key analysis: 3) The link between these alcohol-related policies and the extent of violent criminal activity. Analyses in (3) will cover an even longer time span (1970 through 2006). The study will provide evidence on the effectiveness of alcohol control policies as a means of controlling violent criminal behavior, and will have implications for both alcohol and crime policy. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Although the positive correlation between alcohol consumption and violent behavior is well-established, there remains considerable uncertainty about whether alcohol control policies affect violent crime. The purpose of this study is to examine whether changes in alcohol policies affect aggregate alcohol consumption, whether changes in alcohol consumption affect violent behavior, and whether changes in alcohol policies affect violent behavior. The results will inform public policy on the best ways to reduce both alcohol consumption and violent behaviors.