Population and Economic Recovery in Coastal Aceh: Aid and Village Institutions

描述（由申请人提供）：本项目将开发和测试一系列相互关联的理论，这些理论涉及影响自然灾害后大规模人口和经济资产损失后恢复的经济、社会和政治过程。一个关键因素是评估外部援助和援助交付形式对当地行为、网络和机构以及长期增长和不平等的影响。分析的重点是受2004年海啸不同程度影响的印度尼西亚亚齐沿海村庄，并将利用2005年启动的包含111个村庄和550名渔船所有者的面板数据集，其中包含有关当地经济和政治制度、村庄与外部机构的相互作用、人口变化和遭受的创伤的丰富细节。目前正在利用先前承诺的资源进行下一轮调查，其中又增加了100个村庄和200个新船主。我们建议再进行两轮调查，从2005年到2013年创建一个小组。该项目汇集了美国和印度尼西亚在社区发展、卫生、环境、政治经济和不平等问题上的专家。村庄人口和健康的恢复不仅与不同阶层的人口和潜在的移徙者能否获得个人经济机会密切相关，而且与当地村庄能够在多大程度上调动当地和外部资源进行重建有关。动员的核心是援助进程。这一申请强调了迄今为止在恢复过程中似乎发挥了重要作用的四个核心权衡：a)由外部援助机构“收养”一个村庄以获得更多援助，而不是失去当地自治程度和组织当地志愿劳动的能力；B)通过援助机构在更公平的基础上分配资产，而不是根据专业知识的差异进行分配；C)具有更强技术能力和能力与援助和政府恢复机构打交道的村庄领导与在当地经济和社会网络中定位良好的领导；d)将现代制度作为援助过程的一部分，例如资产的正式所有权，这可能会以牺牲公共资源投资为代价增加私人投资的回报。本项目将在审查村庄和渔业公司恢复进程的背景下，调查这些权衡和援助进程的效力。它将调查重新出现的不平等形式，在这种情况下，海啸的破坏和援助进程具有强烈的平衡作用。它将研究大规模人口损失、个人创伤、援助及其提供形式、村领导的损失以及已有的社会网络如何影响地方公共资源投资。它将审查援助在实现“可持续发展”方面的效力，特别侧重于采用现代市场制度来取代传统制度，考虑到农村的社会和政治进程。最后，它将研究渔业公司的复苏如何受到援助过程、监管和创伤的影响。本申请的研究将有助于分析和设计有效的援助措施，以应对自然灾害后低收入地区人口和经济资产的大规模损失。这项工作的重点是如何最好地整合外部和内部资源和机构，通过长期公平和可持续的经济增长促进人口恢复和健康。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project will develop and test a series of inter-connected theories about the economic, social, and political processes that influence the recovery from large-scale losses of population and economic assets following a natural disaster. A key element is to evaluate the impact of external aid and the form of aid delivery on local behaviors, networks and institutions, as well as long term growth and inequality. The analysis focuses on coastal villages in Aceh, Indonesia, that were differentially affected by the 2004 tsunami, and will make use of a panel data set (initiated in 2005) of 111 villages and 550 fishing boat owners that contains rich detail on local economic and political institutions, interaction of villages with external institutions, population change, and trauma suffered. A subsequent round of the survey using previously committed resources is now being collected, which adds another 100 villages and 200 new boat owners. We propose two additional rounds of the survey, creating a panel from 2005 to 2013. The project brings together USA and Indonesian experts on issues of community development, health, the environment, political economy, and inequality. Recovery of village population and health is importantly linked not just to the availability of individual economic opportunities to different strata of the population and to potential migrants, but to the extent to which the local village is able to mobilize both local and external resources to rebuild. Central in mobilization is the aid process. This application emphasizes four central tradeoffs that appear to have played an important role in the recovery process thus far: a) the "adoption" of a village by an external aid agency to garner more aid versus a loss in the degree of local autonomy and ability to marshal local volunteer labor; b) allocation of assets through aid agencies on a more equitable basis versus allocation based on differences in expertise; c) village leadership with greater technical competence and ability to deal with aid and government recovery agencies versus leadership that is well positioned within local economic and social networks; and d) incorporation of modern institutions as part of the aid process such as formal titling of assets that may increase returns to private investment at the expense of investment in public resources. This project will investigate these trade-offs and the efficacy of the aid process in the context of examining the recovery process of villages and fishing firms. It will investigate the reemergence of patterns of inequality, where the destruction of the tsunami and the aid process had a strong equalizing effect. It will study how the ability to marshal local investment in public resources is affected by wide-scale population losses, personal trauma, aid and its form of delivery, losses of village leaders, and pre-existing social networks. It will examine the efficacy of aid in achieving "sustainable development," with a particular focus on the adoption of modern market institutions to supplant traditional institutions, given village social and political processes. Finally it will study how recovery of fishing firms is affected by the aid process, regulation, and trauma. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE The research in this application would facilitate the analysis and design of effective aid responses to large scale losses in population and economic assets in low-income areas following a natural disaster. The focus of this work is on how external and internal resources and institutions can best be integrated to promote population recovery and health through long-term equitable and sustainable economic growth.