Longer Term Effects of a Natural Disaster on Health and Socio-Economic Status

描述（由申请人提供）：近年来，造成数万人死亡并造成惊人社会和医疗成本的自然灾害袭击了全球各地。然而，很少有证据表明这些灾难对幸存者的长期影响。这在很大程度上反映了关于受影响人口的科学数据的缺乏。本项目将收集和分析海啸善后与恢复研究（STAR）的另外两波数据。STAR是一项大型纵向家庭和社区调查，对2004年印度洋海啸发生时居住在印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛沿海地区的受访者进行跟踪调查。这场大规模的自然灾害导致16万多印度尼西亚人丧生。根据海啸前27,000人的人口代表性基线，我们对海啸幸存者进行了5年的跟踪和重新访谈；其中95%的人在海啸发生后至少接受过一次采访。在海啸发生后8年和10年进行的另外两次家庭和社区调查将提供独特的丰富资源，不仅可以衡量海啸对儿童和壮年成年人福祉的长期影响，还可以调查对这一大规模、意外和异质性冲击的广泛行为反应的中介作用。将调查数据与土地覆盖和夜间灯光的卫星图像结合起来，采用创新的方法来测量图像的增长和重建，将进一步提高调查数据的价值，并提供机会来评价这些方法对人口科学的贡献。利用这些数据，研究人员将调查海啸对社会心理和身体健康、家庭建设、人力资本积累和经济繁荣的长期影响。关于父母和配偶意外死亡、子宫内休克和生命早期休克影响的假设将得到检验。为了描述高死亡率灾难后的人口动态特征，我们将利用社区和行政数据，对选定社区的新横截面家庭进行简短访谈，以捕捉迁移的影响。前六波STAR将于2013年进入公共领域，该项目收集的数据将被添加到这个极其丰富的公共使用数据库中。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Natural disasters with death tolls in the tens of thousands and staggering social and health costs have struck across the globe in recent years. Yet, little evidence exists on the longer-term consequences of these disasters on survivors. In large part, this reflects a paucity of scientific data on affected populations. This project will collect and analyze two additional waves of the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery (STAR) a large- scale longitudinal household and community survey that follows respondents who were living in coastal Sumatra, Indonesia, at the time of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, a massive natural disaster that killed over 160,000 Indonesians. Drawing on a pre-tsunami population-representative baseline of 27,000 individuals, we have tracked and re-interviewed tsunami survivors annually for 5 years; 95% of them have been interviewed at least once since the tsunami. Two additional household and community survey waves, collected 8 and 10 years after the tsunami, will provide a uniquely rich resource to measure not only the longer-term consequences of the tsunami on the well-being of children and prime age adults but to also investigate the mediating role of a broad array of behavioral responses to this large-scale, unanticipated and heterogeneous shock. Integrating the survey data with satellite imagery of land cover and night lights in conjunction with innovative methods to measure growth and reconstruction from imagery will further enhance the value of the survey data and provide opportunities to evaluate the contributions of such methods to the population sciences. With these data, research will investigate the longer-term consequences of the tsunami on psycho-social and physical health, family building, human capital accumulation and economic prosperity. Hypotheses about the impact of unanticipated parent and spousal death, in utero shocks and shocks in early life will be tested. To characterize population dynamics after a high mortality disaster, we will conduct brief interviews with a new cross-section of households in selected communities to capture effects of in-migration, drawing on community- level and administrative data. The first six waves of STAR will be in the public domain in 2013 and data collected in this project will be added to this extremely rich public use database. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: This project will collect and analyze data on how children and prime-age adults are affected by and respond to a large-scale natural disaster, the Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004. Key health outcomes include physical and mental health and fertility. Using the research design of a natural experiment, the project will inform policies of post disaster assistance by conducting rigorous analysis of individual trajectories of well-being in the aftermath of a large-scale unanticipated shock, followed by strong inflow of aid for reconstruction.