Modifiable risk factors in stroke incidence and mortality among women

描述（由申请人提供）：卒中是美国（U.S.）的第三大死亡原因女性占中风死亡人数的60%。在过去十年中，可改变暴露的主要变化-肥胖和身体不活动增加以及绝经期激素治疗（MHT）使用减少-正在改变女性健康状况，但其对女性中风的影响尚不清楚。加州教师研究（CTS）是一项前瞻性队列研究，自1995年以来，该研究积极跟踪了133，479名加州公立学校女性专业人员的广泛健康结果，旨在评估这些可改变暴露的社会转变如何影响中风的发病率和死亡率。CTS队列中关于可改变风险因素的生命过程暴露数据的独特存储库为前瞻性评估与长期体力活动史相关的女性健康风险提供了近乎单一的资源，关于体脂分布的纵向人体测量数据以及详细的MHT使用。我们的具体目标是解决这些变化暴露单独和共同对卒中发病率和死亡率的影响，包括总体和两种主要卒中亚型（缺血性和出血性）。在目标1中，我们将确定肥胖和缺乏身体活动对突发性和致死性卒中的发生率、风险和人群归因分数的影响。我们详细的问卷调查使我们能够评估终身和不断变化的肥胖表型模式（定义为整体肥胖与成人体脂分布的时间变化的组合）和体力活动的影响，包括年龄和新近度。在目标2中，我们将确定在广泛停止使用MHT后（2002年后），肥胖和缺乏体力活动（目标1）对发生率、风险和人群归因分数的影响是否变得更加明显。为了实现这些目标，我们将计算年龄调整和年龄特异性的年发病率和死亡率，标准化为2000年的美国人口。为了计算风险关联，我们将使用从青少年到老年的这些关键暴露的时间依赖性暴露数据，并使用统计方法分析与中风风险和死亡率的关联，这些方法可以解释暴露的缺失数据和长期变化。我们将计算每个病因危险因素的人群归因分数，并按MHT广泛使用与最近使用急剧下降的时间段进行计算。公共卫生相关性：这些目标的成功完成将允许评估肥胖、体力活动和MHT使用对女性卒中发病率和死亡率的十年深刻转变的人群影响，并提供对这些和其他相关暴露之间相互作用的见解。该提案侧重于卒中发病的病因学和卒中死亡的原因，并强调常见的、可改变的行为风险因素，以促进未来全人群卒中预防工作。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Stroke is the third leading cause of death in the United States (U.S.) and women account for 60% of all deaths from stroke. Major shifts in modifiable exposures over the past decade - increasing obesity and physical inactivity and decreasing menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use - are changing the profile of women's health, but their effect on stroke among women is unclear. The California Teachers Study (CTS), a prospective cohort study that has actively followed 133,479 female California public school professionals for a broad range of health outcomes since 1995, is poised to evaluate how these societal transitions in modifiable exposures affect incidence of and mortality from stroke. The unique repository of life course exposure data on modifiable risk factors in the CTS cohort provides a near-singular resource for prospective assessment of women's health risks associated with long-term history of physical activity, longitudinal anthropometry data on body fat distribution, and detailed MHT use. Our specific aims address the impact of these shifting exposures both individually and together on stroke incidence and mortality, both overall and among the two major stroke subtypes (ischemic and hemorrhagic). In Aim 1, we will determine the impact of obesity and physical inactivity on the rates, risk, and population attributable fraction of incident and fatal stroke. Our detailed questionnaires permit us to evaluate the effect of lifelong and changing patterns of obesity phenotypes (defined as a combination of temporal changes in overall adiposity with adult body fat distribution) and physical activity, including by age and recency. In Aim 2, we will determine whether the effects on rates, risk and population attributable fraction observed from obesity and physical inactivity (Aim 1) become more pronounced in the years following widespread cessation of MHT use (after 2002). To accomplish these aims, we will calculate age-adjusted and age-specific annual incidence and mortality rates, standardized to the U.S. population in 2000. To calculate risk associations, we will use time-dependent exposure data on these key exposures from teenage years to old age and analyze associations with stroke risk and mortality using statistical approaches that account for missing data and secular changes in exposures. We will calculate the population attributable fraction for each etiologic risk factor, and by time period when MHT was widely used versus the recent sharp decline in use. Public Health Relevance: Successful completion of these aims will permit evaluation of the population impact of a decade of profound transition in obesity, physical activity, and MHT use on women's stroke incidence and mortality, and provide insight into the interplay between these and other relevant exposures. This proposal focuses on the etiology of stroke incidence and causes of stroke mortality and emphasizes common, modifiable, behavioral risk factors in ways that can facilitate future population-wide stroke prevention efforts.