Climate Variability, Migration and Intergenerational Transfers

描述（由申请人提供）：该项目借鉴并推进我们对移民和家庭间转移作为墨西哥社区风险分担和消费平滑机制的理解。它具体审查了降雨量的变化作为外源性环境风险的来源。长期年际变率衡量的是与某一地点的农业有关的风险，而短期年际变率反映的是某些自然随机和周期性变率，以及人为气候变化造成的变率增加。因此，长期变化的影响显示了在社会制度中编码的环境风险的影响，而短期变化的影响则显示了对环境风险的积极适应。与此相反，与长期平均降雨量的单年偏差的影响显示出对收入或生产冲击的直接反应。因此，该项目将区分将环境风险与人类行为联系起来的几种可能机制，为关于发展中国家家庭决策和人类适应气候变化的跨学科文献做出贡献。该项目使用公开的社会调查数据，即墨西哥家庭生活调查，来衡量移徙、家庭间转移和关键控制变量。然后，这些数据将与根据墨西哥256个气象站近35年来每小时降雨量数据构建的降雨量测量结果合并。这两个数据源将使用MxFLS数据中识别的最佳地理位置municipio进行合并，其中社会调查数据与距离municipio质心最近的气象站的记录相匹配。事件历史和logit回归模型的永久性和暂时性迁移出社区将检查降雨量的长期平均年际变化，短期年际变化，以及单年偏离长期平均降雨量的不同影响。家庭间转移的Logit回归模型研究了这些变量的影响。 公共卫生相关性：该项目研究气候变化影响人类行为的方式，重点是家庭内的移徙和资源共享。我们分析了2001年至2005年期间墨西哥各地社区降雨量变化和逐年变化之间的关系，以及移民和家庭成员的金钱，时间和商品支持。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project draws on and advances our understanding of migration and inter-household transfers as risk-sharing and consumption-smoothing mechanisms in Mexican communities. It specifically examines rainfall variability as a source of exogenous environmental risk. Long-term interannual variability measures the risk associated with agriculture in a location, while short-term interannual variability reflects some natural random and cyclic variability and some increases in variability due to anthropogenic climate change. Thus, effects of long-term variability show the effects of environmental risk codified in social institutions that have evolved in a community while effects of short-term variability show active adaptation to environmental risk. Effects of single year deviations from the long-term average rainfall, in contrast, show immediate responses to income or production shocks. Thus, the project will distinguish between several possible mechanisms linking environmental risk to human behavior, contributing to the interdisciplinary literatures on household decision-making in developing countries and on human adaptation to changing climate. The project uses publicly available social survey data, the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS), to measure migration, inter-household transfers, and key control variables. These data will then be merged with precipitation measures constructed from hourly rainfall data from approximately the last 35 years from 256 weather stations in Mexico. The two data sources will be merged using the municipio, the finest geography identified in the MxFLS data, with social survey data matched to the record from the weather station closest in Euclidean distance to the centroid of the municipio. Event history and logit regression models of permanent and temporary migration out of communities will examine the differing effects of long-term average interannual variability in rainfall, short-term interannual variability, and single year deviation from the long-term average rainfall. Logit regression models of inter-household transfers examine the effects of these same variables. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: This project examines the ways in which climate variability influences human behavior, focusing on migration and resource-sharing within families. We analyze the relationships between changes in the amount of rainfall and the year-to-year variation in amount, and migration, and support of family members with money, time and goods, between 2001 and 2005 in communities across Mexico.