Modeling, Spatial, Statistics

科学计划 5.1研究项目1：建模、空间、统计 本研究项目的总体目标是开发、验证和实施数学和统计 自然发生的传染病和生物恐怖主义制剂的传播模型。这些型号将 用于评估各种干预措施的效力和效力，以协助分配和分配 应对传染病暴发的资源。具体目标如下： 1.发展或进一步发展重要传染病威胁的数学和统计模型 包括流感、霍乱、登革热、结核病、新型冠状病毒和新出现的传染病。 这将涉及到开发一般模型来理解传染病的传播， 以及针对所研究的每种传染病的特定模型的开发。 2.利用流行病数学和统计模型评估干预措施的有效性 监测和遏制、疫苗接种、抗菌剂、社会距离和其他控制战略 针对特定目标中的传染病。 3.使用和发展统计方法，从现有数据中估计重要参数和变量 对于传染病来说。这些统计方法将包括新的可能性和创新的可能性 经验的、分层的贝叶斯模型以及MCMC方法

Scientific Program 5.1 Research Project 1: Modeling, Spatial, Statistics The overall objective of this research project is to develop, validate, and implement mathematical and statistical models for the transmission of naturally occurring infectious diseases and bioterrorism agents. These models will be used to assess the effectiveness and efficacy of various interventions to aid the distribution and allocation of resources in response to infectious disease outbreaks. The specific aims are as follows: 1. To develop or further develop mathematical and statistical models for important infectious disease threats including influenza, cholera, dengue fever, TB, novel coronaviruses, and new emerging infectious diseases. This will involve the development of general models to understand the transsmission of infectious diseases, as well as the development of specific models for each infectious disease studied. 2. To use the epidemic mathematical and statistical models to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions involving surveillance and containment, vaccination, antimicrobials, social distancing, and other control strategies for the infectious diseases in specific aim 1. 3. To use and develop statistical methods to estimate the important parameters and variables from data available for the infectious diseases. These statistical methods will include both novel and innovative likelihood and empirical, hierarchical Bayesian models, as well as MCMC methods