Predictors of High-Risk Behavior among Youth

描述（由申请人提供）：虽然对大多数人来说，赌博只是一种愉快的体验，没有重大后果，但对大约5%的成年人来说，赌博可能导致重大问题，如家庭，人际关系和财务问题。现有的证据，包括本申请的母基金（R 01 HD 060072，PI：Martins）支持的工作，表明PG是多因素的，并且受到广泛变量的影响。然而，由于缺乏纵向数据和一个理论驱动的和医学支持的病因学模型，整合了一系列的风险和相关因素，PG研究受到严重限制。本研究整合了PG，Blaszczynski和Nower的路径模型（到目前为止，只检查横截面）与其他风险行为的背景和干预知情的发展模型（生态发展理论）的发展模型。我们建议在两个时间点收集关于赌博行为和PG的新信息，这些信息来自两个基于人口的波多黎各人样本中的1，100名青年/年轻成年人的高风险人群。（17-25岁）从两个地点：南布朗克斯（SBx），纽约和圣胡安，波多黎各（PR）通过利用一项正在进行的研究，博里夸青年研究（BYS-R 01 DA 033172，PI：Duarte和R 01 MH 09837，PI：阿莱格里亚，卡尼诺和Duarte），自2001年以来一直在前瞻性地跟踪波多黎各人。本研究的具体目的是：1）估计：（1a）患病率（过去一年和过去三个月）青少年晚期/成年早期的任何赌博、频繁赌博和PG严重程度;（1b）在已知赌博行为发生最大变化的两年期间内赌博模式和PG严重程度的变化;（1c）赌博者的特征（年龄、性别、赌博和PG发病年龄以及PG家族史），确定PR和SBx之间的PG估计值和特征是否不同。2)研究从儿童到青年的PG途径的发展，特别是（a）外化，内化障碍和相关风险因素与PG患病率和青少年后期/青年期变化的关系;（B）背景因素（如社会支持，邻里劣势）对PG途径的影响。3)通过确定涉及PG、HIV/STD风险行为、辍学和反社会行为的不同风险行为集群，了解PG与青春期后期/成年早期形成的其他风险行为的关系。这种创新的方法，使用最先进的潜在变量建模，侧重于在更广泛的风险/资源背景下的政策修改的风险因素。通过关注生活在两种环境中的波多黎各人，我们也可以研究环境在一个种族同质群体中的PG中的重要作用。拟议的研究，通过建立在现有的和正在进行的努力，是一个具有高度成本效益的方式产生前所未有的信息赌博行为之间的波多黎各人，以及纵向检查路径模型。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): While for most people gambling is just an enjoyable experience without major consequences, for approximately 5% of adults, gambling can result in significant problems such as family, interpersonal and financial problems. Existing evidence, including work supported by this application's parent grant (R01HD060072, PI: Martins), demonstrates that PG is multifactorial and that it is influenced by a broad range of variables. However, PG research has been seriously constrained by the absence of longitudinal data and of a theory-driven and empirically-supported etiological model that integrates an array of risk and associated factors. This study integrates a developmental model of PG, Blaszczynski and Nower's Pathways model (so far only examined cross-sectionally) with a context -and intervention-informed developmental model of other risk behaviors (Ecodevelopmental theory). We propose to collect new information about gambling behaviors and PG in two time-points on a high-risk population of 1,100 youth/young adults from two population-based samples of Puerto Rican (ages 17-25) from two sites: the South Bronx (SBx), NYC and San Juan, Puerto Rico (PR) by taking advantage of an ongoing study, the Boricua Youth Study (BYS-R01DA033172, PI: Duarte and R01MH09837, PIs: Alegria, Canino & Duarte), which has been following Puerto Rican individuals prospectively since 2001. The specific aims of this study are to 1) Estimate: (1a) the prevalence (past year and past three- month) of any gambling, frequent gambling, and severity of PG during late adolescence/early adulthood; (1b) changes in the patterns of gambling and severity of PG over a two-year period when gambling behaviors are known to be undergoing the most changes; (1c) the characteristics of individuals who gamble (age, gender, age of onset of gambling and PG, and family history of PG), determining if PG estimates and characteristics differ between PR and SBx. 2) Examine developmental PG pathways from childhood to young adulthood, specifically (a) the relationship of externalizing, internalizing disorders and related risk factors with PG prevalence and change in late adolescence/young adulthood; (b) the influence of contextual factors (e.g. social support, neighborhood disadvantage) on PG pathways. 3) Understand how PG is related to other risk behaviors also being shaped during late adolescence/young adulthood, by determining different risk behavior clusters involving PG, HIV/STD risk behaviors, school drop-out, and antisocial behaviors. This innovative approach, using state of the art latent variable modeling, focuses on policy-modifiable risk factors within broader risk/resource contexts. By focusing on Puerto Ricans living in two settings we can also examine the important role of environment in PG in an ethnically homogeneous group. The proposed study, by building on existing and ongoing efforts, is a highly cost-effective way of generating unprecedented information about gambling behaviors among Puerto Ricans as well as examining the Pathways model longitudinally.