Modeling Optimal Strategies to Prevent Cardiovascular Events in Older Adults

描述(由申请者提供)：此指导研究科学家发展奖申请将为加州大学旧金山分校(UCSF)流行病学家和发展调查员Michelle Odden博士提供密集的研究、培训和职业发展计划。她的长期职业目标是成为老年心血管疾病(CVD)及相关并发症循证预防领域的领导者。老年人的寿命更长、更健康，但目前关于心血管疾病流行病学和预防的大部分文献都来自年轻人群。在这项申请中，奥登博士将开发一个全面的证据基础，用于预防75岁及以上成年人的心血管事件。在她的指导团队的指导下，奥登博士将在心血管健康研究中确定心血管疾病的最强风险因素，这是一项由美国国立卫生研究院资助的针对老年人的队列研究。她将利用这些分析的结果为计算机模拟老年人的心血管疾病提供信息，以确定最有希望的心血管疾病预防干预措施，同时将意外副作用的风险降至最低。奥登博士将使用CHD政策模型进行这些模拟，这是一个关于美国人口中心血管疾病的已建立的计算机模型。为了实现这些目标，奥登博士和她的导师们制定了以下具体目标：1)描述75岁及以上成年人心血管事件的流行病学，并在传统和与年龄相关的风险因素中确定心血管事件的最强决定因素；2)通过将深入的、新的流行病学数据纳入已建立的心血管疾病计算机模型，预测75岁及以上美国成年人的心血管疾病发病率、患病率、死亡率和生活质量；3)基于已建立的心血管疾病计算机模型，评估美国75岁及以上成年人心血管疾病预防策略对延长健康寿命的潜在影响。这项研究的长期目标是预防75岁以上成年人的心血管事件，并延长老年人的健康寿命。这项研究支持了美国国立卫生研究院预防疾病和改善美国人的健康和福祉的使命。该应用程序的主要培训目标是建立知识和技能的基础，使奥登博士做好准备，成为一名成功的独立研究人员，从事从研究到实践的老年人翻译研究。通过一个由加州大学旧金山分校的高级研究人员和有经验的外部顾问组成的多学科团队的培训和指导，她将学习老年学临床科学和心血管预防的原理，并扩大她的方法学专业知识，包括预测和决策分析方法。实施和传播科学方面的额外培训将使她能够将她的研究成果转化为公共卫生和临床实践建议。她将参加由加州大学旧金山分校临床和翻译科学研究所提供的临床和翻译K学者计划，该计划将在她发展她的翻译衰老研究计划时提供关键的支持和指导。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This Mentored Research Scientist Development Award application will provide an intensive research, training, and career development program for Dr. Michelle Odden, an epidemiologist and developing investigator at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF). Her long-term career goal is to become a leader in the evidence-based prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and related comorbid conditions in elderly adults. Older adults are living longer and healthier lives, yet much of the current literature on CVD epidemiology and prevention has been derived from younger populations. In this application, Dr. Odden will develop a comprehensive evidence base for prevention of CVD events in adults aged 75 years and older. Guided by her mentorship team, Dr. Odden will identify the strongest risk factors for CVD in the Cardiovascular Health Study, an ongoing NIH-funded cohort study of elderly adults. She will use the results of these analyses to inform computer simulations of CVD in older adults, in order to identify the most promising interventions for CVD prevention at the lowest risk for unintended side effects. Dr. Odden will conduct these simulations with the CHD Policy Model, an established computer model of CVD in the U.S. population. To achieve these goals, Dr. Odden and her mentors have developed the following specific aims:1) To describe the epidemiology of CVD events in adults 75 years and older, and to identify the strongest determinants of CVD events, among both traditional and age-related risk factors; 2) To forecast CVD incidence, prevalence, mortality, and quality of life in U.S. adults aged 75 years and older, by incorporating in-depth, novel epidemiological data into an established CVD computer model; 3) To estimate the potential impact of prevention strategies for CVD in U.S. adults aged 75 years and older on the extension of healthy life years, based on an established CVD computer model. The long term goal of this research is to prevent CVD events in adults over 75, and to extend the healthy years of life for older adults. This research supports the National Institutes of Health's mission to prevent disease and improve the health and well-being of Americans. The primary training goals of this application are to build a foundation of knowledge and skill set that will prepare Dr. Odden to be a successful independent researcher in translational research - from research to practice - in older adults. Through the training and the mentorship of a multidisciplinary team comprised of senior investigators at UCSF, and accomplished external advisors, she will learn the principles of gerontologic clinical science and cardiovascular prevention, and expand her methodological expertise to include forecasting and decision analysis methods. Additional training in implementation and dissemination science will enable her to translate her research findings into public health and clinical practice recommendations. She will participate in the Clinical and Translational K Scholars Program, offered by the UCSF Clinical and Translational Science Institute, which will offer crucial support and mentoring as she develops her research program in translational aging research.