Project 1: The Impact of Changing Tobacco Product Use on Tobacco-Relate p167-193

FDA发布的任何烟草产品法规的一个重要组成部分是对 这项规定。吸烟与健康相关的经济成本的模型已经演变和改进 多年来，目前的模型考虑了吸烟、健康和健康之间的复杂关系 医疗保健支出。然而，缺乏关于可归因于使用的医疗费用的研究 香烟以外的烟草产品。考虑到利率的增加，拥有这些信息是很重要的 使用了哪些非香烟产品。为了填补这一空白，我们建议开发模型来估计 因使用不同烟草产品而产生的医疗费用(即医疗支出)，包括 雪茄，湿鼻烟，嚼烟，薄荷醇和非薄荷醇香烟，这些产品的组合， 以及二手烟暴露。具体地说，我们计划使用来自全国调查的个人水平数据来 1)建立微观经济模型，估计因使用不同药物而产生的医疗成本 烟草产品，以确定产品种类是否对成本有重大影响，以及2)开发 估计二手烟暴露造成的医疗成本的微观经济模型。这些 模型将允许我们通过以下方式评估FDA潜在法规对医疗成本的影响 使用三种替代方案预测烟草产品使用和二手烟暴露的变化 方法(使用全国调查数据进行时间感知分析，使用路径进行纵向模型分析 数据，以及烟草产品使用普及率的模拟变化)，并通过纳入数学模型 肺病和心血管疾病短期风险的模拟模型。我们的模型将包括 TCORS其他项目的调查结果，包括NSK感知对不同烟草使用的影响 年轻人和老年人中的烟草产品，以及烟草产品对肺损伤的影响的研究 以及短期内的心血管疾病。有更好的吸烟成本模型和 与使用其他烟草产品相关的成本将有助于对烟草产品的监管。 因为政策分析需要考虑法规对烟草消费的影响以及 成本。 相关性(请参阅说明)： 我们将首次对与使用薄荷脑相关的医疗费用进行估算 香烟、雪茄、湿鼻烟和咀嚼烟草，以及更新和改进的成本估计 吸烟和二手烟暴露的风险。我们将使用个人层面的微观经济成本 模型框架，改进了FDA以前使用的经济模型。这些模型还可以 用于评估影响烟草产品使用的其他政策对医疗保健支出的影响。

An important component of any regulation of tobacco products the FDA issues is an economic analysis of the regulation. Models of the health-related economic costs of cigarette smoking have evolved and improved over the years, and current models take into account the complex relationship between smoking, health, and healthcare expenditures. However, there is a lack of research on healthcare costs attributable to the use of tobacco products other than cigarettes. It is important to have this information given the increased rates at which non-cigarette products are being used. To fill this gap, we propose to develop models to estimate the healthcare costs (i.e. healthcare expenditures) resulting from the use of different tobacco products, including cigars, moist snuff, chewing tobacco, menthol and nonmenthol cigarettes, combinations of these products, and secondhand smoke exposure. Specifically, we plan to use individual level data from national surveys to 1) develop microeconomic models to estimate the healthcare costs attributable to the use of different tobacco products to determine whether the kind of product substantially affects costs and 2) develop microeconomic models to estimate the healthcare costs attributable to secondhand smoke exposure. These models will allow us to evaluate the impact of potential FDA regulations on healthcare costs through the projected changes in tobacco product use and secondhand smoke exposure using three alternative approaches (time senes analysis with data from national surveys, longitudinal model analysis with the PATH data, and simulated changes in tobacco product use prevalence) and through incorporating mathematical simulation models of short-term risks of pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases. Our models will incorporate findings from other TCORS projects, including the impact of nsk perception on use of different tobacco products among young adults and older adults, and studies ofthe effects of tobacco products on lung injury and cardiovascular disease in the short-term. Having better models ofthe cost of smoking and models of costs associated with the use of other tobacco products will be useful for the regulation of tobacco products because policy analysis needs to consider the impact of regulations on tobacco consumption as well as costs. RELEVANCE (See instructions): We will develop, for the first time, estimates of the healthcare costs associated with the use of menthol cigarettes, cigars, moist snuff, and chewing tobacco as well as updated and improved estimates ofthe cost of cigarette smoking and secondhand smoke exposure. We will use an individual-level microeconomic cost model framework that improves upon the economic model used previously by the FDA. The models also can be used to evaluate the impact on healthcare expenditures of other policies that impact tobacco product use.