Monitoring the Future: Drug Use and Lifestyles of American Youth

摘要 本申请寻求正在进行的监测未来(MTF)研究的五年续展 1975年开始的流行病学和病原学研究和报告项目。除了作为一个基本的 研究研究表明，MTF已成为美国最依赖新兴趋势信息的来源之一 在美国青少年、大学生和成年人中非法使用毒品、酒精和烟草。全国性的 将对8、10和12年级学生(每年约42,000名学生)的代表性样本进行调查 每年从2022/23年度至2026/27年度。配套的小组申请寻求继续进行后续调查 过去和未来的高中毕业生年龄分别为19-30岁、35岁、40岁、45岁、50岁、55岁、60岁，以及刚刚接触这一周期的人， 65岁。这项研究的队列顺序纵向设计允许测量和区分三个 变化类型--年龄(发展)、时期(历史)和队列。每一个都有不同的决定因素，MTF 发现大多数药物都会发生这三种类型的变化。可能解释历史趋势和队列的因素 不同之处也受到监控。MTF旨在记录以下方面的发展历史和后果 从青春期到退休年龄的药物使用和相关态度，并确定个人 以及上下文特征和社会角色转换，有助于改变和稳定使用和 相关的态度。这项工作将在这一主要应用程序和 配套的后续应用程序。这项研究将检验许多其他假设的重要性 吸毒的心理、行为和社会决定因素(包括态度和信念、反吸毒 广告、角色建模和访问)，以及一系列潜在后果(包括物理和 心理健康、地位获得、角色表现和药物使用障碍症状)。影响 将审查一系列政策变化，包括旨在减少青少年蒸发的FDA新政策。这项研究的 非常广泛的衡量标准包括：(A)50多个合法类别和子类别的发起、使用和停止 和非法药物，包括酒精和烟草；(B)对其中许多药物的态度和信念，包括 (C)其他行为和个人特征(健康 困难、犯罪、学校表现、计划、抱负等)；和(D)关键社会环境的各方面 (家庭、工作、学校)和社会角色状态、经历和转变。结果将继续澄清 从青春期到成年期的药物使用--包括引入新药--主要 对政策、研究、治疗和预防议程的影响。

ABSTRACT This application seeks a five-year continuation of the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, an ongoing epidemiological and etiological research and reporting project begun in 1975. In addition to being a basic research study, MTF has become one of the nation's most relied upon sources of information on emerging trends in illicit drug, alcohol, and tobacco use among American adolescents, college students, and adults. Nationally representative samples of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students (about 42,000 students per year) will be surveyed annually from 2022/23 to 2026/27. A companion panel application seeks continuation of follow-up surveys of both past and future high school graduates at modal ages 19–30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, and, new to this cycle, age 65. The study's cohort-sequential longitudinal design permits the measurement and differentiation of three types of change—age (developmental), period (historical), and cohort. Each has different determinants, and MTF finds all three types of change occur for most drugs. Factors that may explain historical trends and cohort differences also are monitored. MTF is designed to document the developmental history and consequences of drug use and related attitudes from adolescence through the retirement years, and to determine the individual and contextual characteristics and social role transitions that contribute to change and stability in both use and related attitudes. This work will be extended to new years, cohorts, and ages under this main application and the companion follow-up application. The study will examine the importance of many other hypothesized psychological, behavioral, and social determinants of drug use (including attitudes and beliefs, counter- advertising, role-modeling, and access), as well as a range of potential consequences (including physical and psychological health, status attainment, role performance, and symptoms of substance use disorders). Impacts of policy changes will be examined, including new FDA policies aimed at the reduction of teen vaping. The study's very broad measurement covers (a) initiation, use, and cessation for over 50 categories and subcategories of licit and illicit drugs, including alcohol and tobacco; (b) attitudes and beliefs about many of them, including perceived risk of harm, disapproval, and perceived availability; (c) other behaviors and individual characteristics (health difficulties, delinquency, school performance, plans, aspirations, etc.); and (d) aspects of key social environments (home, work, school) and social role statuses, experiences, and transitions. Results will continue to elucidate drug use from adolescence through adulthood—including the introduction of new drugs—with major implications for policy, research, treatment, and prevention agendas.