Investing in the Future: An Evaluation of Local Government Spending as a Modifiable Structural Determinant of Interpersonal Youth Violence

项目摘要/摘要 我是加州大学戴维斯分校的流行病学家和助理教授，主要研究疾病的原因、后果和 防止枪支暴力。我的长期职业目标是创造一个具有高影响力、方法严谨的 枪支暴力预防研究计划。我对学习可修改的课程特别感兴趣 暴力的上游原因，可以被用来实现广泛、持久的暴力减少- 相关伤害。与这一更大的目标和国家伤害预防和控制中心的 人际暴力研究的重点是青少年暴力，拟议研究的目的是审查 地方政府支出是美国青少年人际暴力的潜在结构性决定因素 各州。这将通过以下具体目标来实现：1)确定城市支出是否 在教育、警察、社会服务和社区环境方面与城市青年比率有关 暴力；2)确定城市在教育、警察、社会服务和社区方面的支出 环境与城市青少年暴力发生率中的黑人和白人种族差异有关；以及3) 确定城市治安支出与其他公共产品支出总和的比率 服务(教育、社会服务和社区环境)与城市青年比率有关 暴力。二次分析将按种族/民族和涉及枪支的情况检查结果，以确定 基于种族的异质性和特定于枪支的趋势。这将是一项超过100人的系列横断面研究 1999-2018年间，美国的不同城市。它将利用一个新的城市支出数据集，该数据集已经 标准化以考虑到将财政责任分配给上级政府的不同情况 单位(例如，县、学区)。青少年暴力将被衡量为受害(杀人)和 在10至24岁之间的个人中实施(因严重袭击或杀人而被捕)。 复杂的因果推断方法，包括滞后固定效应模型和纵向g-模型。 计算，将被用来最大限度地减少混淆的偏见，并检查短期和长期的联系。 该项目将提供对我的职业发展和研究目标至关重要的机会，包括1) 加深我在预防暴力方面的专业知识，并向青少年暴力领域拓展，2) 开发新的方法技能，以及3)通过作为主要研究人员走向研究独立 调查员。这些培训目标将由我的导师团队指导，并将得到以下补充 技术研讨会主要在网上提供。这项提案将在暴力预防中心执行 加州大学戴维斯分校的研究计划，该计划从事枪支暴力预防研究已超过 30年了。提议的项目将为我提供所需的经验、技能和支持，以提高我的 并将使我能够对我们有限的结构理解做出实质性的贡献 暴力的决定因素。

Project Summary/Abstract I am an epidemiologist and Assistant Professor at UC Davis primarily studying the causes, consequences, and prevention of firearm violence. My long-term career goal is to create a high-impact, methodologically rigorous research program on firearm violence prevention. I am particularly interested in studying modifiable upstream causes of violence that can be leveraged to effectuate widespread, enduring reductions in violence- related harms. Aligned with this larger goal and the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control’s interpersonal violence research priority of youth violence, the objective of the proposed study is to examine local government spending as a potential structural determinant of interpersonal youth violence in the United States. This will be accomplished through the following specific aims: 1) to determine whether city spending on education, police, social services, and the community environment is associated with city rates of youth violence; 2) to determine whether city spending on education, police, social services, and the community environment is associated with Black-white racial disparities in city rates of youth violence; and 3) to determine whether the ratio of city spending on policing to spending on the sum of other public goods and services (education, social services, and the community environment) is associated with city rates of youth violence. Secondary analyses will examine outcomes by race/ethnicity and firearm involvement to identify race-based heterogeneity and firearm-specific trends. This will be a serial cross-sectional study of over 100 diverse cities in the United States, 1999-2018. It will draw on a novel dataset of city spending that has been standardized to account for variation in the allocation of fiscal responsibilities to overlaying governmental units (e.g., counties, school districts). Youth violence will be measured as victimization (homicide) and perpetration (arrest for aggravated assault or homicide) among individuals between the ages of 10 and 24. Sophisticated causal inference methods, including lagged fixed effects models and longitudinal g- computation, will be used to minimize confounding bias and examine both short- and long-term associations. This project will provide opportunities critical to my career development and research goals, including 1) deepening my expertise of violence prevention and expanding into the subfield of youth violence, 2) developing new methodological skills, and 3) moving toward research independence by serving as a primary investigator. These training goals will be guided by my team of mentors and will be supplemented by technical workshops offered primarily online. This proposal will be carried out at the Violence Prevention Research Program at UC Davis, which has been engaged in firearm violence prevention research for more than 30 years. The proposed project will provide me the experience, skills, and support I need to advance my research career and will allow me to substantially contribute to our limited understanding of the structural determinants of violence.