Evaluating the impacts of sea level rise on migration and wellbeing in coastal communities

摘要 气候变化和极端天气事件对人类健康和发展构成日益严重的威胁， 美国的弱势群体。极端风暴造成的心理困扰往往持续存在 多年来，野火造成的空气污染增加了出生不良后果的风险，洪水蔓延 土地和水的污染物。虽然气候变化对健康的威胁是显而易见的，但研究 主要集中在极端事件的影响，而不是“新常态”下， 气候变化可能对家庭和社区造成频繁的破坏和长期的压力。 对于许多沿海社区来说，海平面上升正在创造一种新的常态， 每月的高潮和降雨。虽然这些洪水不像飓风那样具有灾难性，但它们几乎肯定会发生。 发生会导致不同的问题-并可能导致不同的反应-比低- 飓风袭击的可能性了解气候变化带来的长期压力的影响， 并结合严重灾害，是有效适应的必要条件。K 01奖 建议将促进我们对慢性和急性沿海洪水影响的理解， 迁移和压力。通过利用我在气候暴露和影响方面的专业知识， 我的职业目标是成为一名独立的研究人员， 气候变化和人口科学。我将培训人口统计学理论和方法， 阅读与我的导师对测量心理社会和身体健康，并制定调查 设计和分析能力。然后，我将运用这些技巧来研究洪水， 移民和美国沿海社区的健康。我的研究目标是：1）表征 洪水的经验和进出移民之间的关系，2）分析如何健康，经济 资源和洪水经验塑造移民意图，3）评估健康和经济 搬家者和留宿者的福利。为了实现这些目标，我将利用两个主要数据集： 由大西洋沿岸八个地区大多数成年人的个人地址历史组成的管理数据集 一项详细的家庭调查目前正在北卡罗来纳州的四个沿海县进行。我 导师团队在环境迁移、调查方法和健康测量方面具有专业知识， 非常适合帮助我实现我的研究和培训目标。研究结果和 本研究中收集的数据将成为未来R级建议的基础，以扩大地理 关于沿海洪灾影响的住户调查范围，并审查 海平面上升对儿童和年轻人的发展影响。结合起来，研究和 这里提出的培训将使我能够将我在气候变化适应方面的专业知识应用于 气候对健康、移徙和人类发展的影响是一个广泛而紧迫的挑战。

ABSTRACT Climate change and extreme weather events pose a growing threat to the health and development of vulnerable populations in the United States. Psychological distress from extreme storms often persists for years, air pollution from wildfires increases the risk of adverse birth outcomes, and floods spread contaminants in land and water. While the threats from climate change to wellbeing are clear, research has predominantly focused on the effects of extreme events, rather than how the “new normal” under climate change can cause frequent disruptions and long-term stress for households and communities. For many coastal communities, sea level rise is creating a new normal with routine flooding from monthly high tides and rain. While those floods are not as catastrophic as hurricanes, their near-certain occurrence causes different problems – and potentially leads to different responses – than low- probability hurricane strikes. Understanding the impacts of chronic stresses from climate change, alone and in combination with acute disasters, is necessary for enabling effective adaptation. This K01 Award proposal will advance our understanding of the impacts of chronic and acute coastal flooding on migration and stress. By building on my expertise in climate exposures and impacts, it will accelerate my progress towards my career goal of becoming an independent researcher at the intersection of climate change and population science. I will train in demographic theory and methods, conduct guided readings with my mentors on measurement of psychosocial and physical health, and develop survey design and analysis skills. Then, I will apply those skills to study the interactions between flooding, migration, and health in coastal communities in the US. My research aims are: 1) to characterize the relationship between flood experience and in- and out-migration, 2) to analyze how health, economic resources, and flood experience shape migration intentions, and 3) to assess the health and economic wellbeing of movers and stayers. To achieve these aims, I will draw on two primary datasets: an administrative dataset consisting of individual address histories for most adults in eight Atlantic coast states, and a detailed household survey currently underway in four coastal North Carolina counties. My mentor team, with expertise in environmental migration, survey methods, and health measurement, are ideally suited to help me achieve my research and training goals. The outcomes of the research and data collected in this study will form the basis for future R-level proposals to expand the geographic scope of the household survey on the impacts of coastal flooding and to examine the health and development impacts of sea level rise on children and young adults. Combined, the research and training proposed here will enable me to apply my expertise in climate change adaptation to the widespread and urgent challenge of climate impacts on health, migration, and human development.