Declining Teen Fertility and Increasing Population Heterogeneity within the Latino/Hispanic Population Supplement

项目摘要 这项拟议的研究重点是美国西班牙裔/拉丁裔青少年生育问题 (下文：西班牙裔)人口。美国青少年生育率普遍下降， 近年来，在西班牙裔/拉美裔青少年中，这一比例尤其大。鉴于他们的 青少年出生的比例不成比例(2017年所有青少年出生的婴儿中，西班牙裔占三分之一以上 青少年)，西班牙裔出生率的下降是最近下降的很大一部分原因 在全国青少年出生率中。然而，除了出生数据报告外，还没有正式的 考虑到巨大的异质性，对这些史无前例的下降的人口统计学核算 以及西班牙裔人口的重大变化。这种丰富的描述是必不可少的， 尽管经常被绕过，但要参与更广泛的任务，找出原因(两者都是近在咫尺的 以及西班牙裔青少年生育率显著下降的原因。我们利用近30年的 出生数据(1991-2018)，首先确定西班牙裔青少年出生率的下降是否 广泛分布或仅限于特定的子组(通过不同的组合进行交叉分类 原籍地区、出生地、美国地理位置、年龄和婚姻状况)。第二，我们 使用分解分析在不同的解释之间做出判断(即 变化与未观察到的行为变化)任何有记录的下降背后。第三，通过 关于拟议的行政补充，我们建议将分析的时间范围扩大到 报道新冠肺炎时代之前和之后的情况。新冠肺炎惊人的不成比例的影响 拉美裔人口促使我们专注于确定新冠肺炎大流行是如何 改变了西班牙裔美国人的青春期和早期生育率。共同努力，我们的方法将 揭示对更全面地了解西班牙裔青少年至关重要的模式 生育率，包括它如何改变(或没有改变)以及观察到的任何改变的原因。

Project Summary The proposed study focuses on adolescent childbearing among the U.S. Hispanic/Latina (hereafter: Hispanic) population. Declines in teen fertility in the U.S have been widespread and, in recent years, have been particularly large among Hispanic/Latina adolescents. Given their disproportionate share of teen births (over one-third of all teen births in 2017 were to Hispanic teens), the drop in the Hispanic birth rate accounts for a substantial portion of the recent decline in the national teen birth rate. Beyond birth data reports, however, there has been no formal demographic accounting of these unprecedented declines that considers the vast heterogeneity and significant changes in the Hispanic population. This kind of rich description is an essential, albeit frequently bypassed, step in the broader tasks of identifying the causes (both proximate and distal) of the impressive declines in Hispanic teen fertility. We leverage nearly 30 years of Natality data (1991-2018) to first determine if declines in Hispanic teen birth rates have been widespread or exclusive to particular sub-groups (cross-classified by different combinations of region-of-origin, nativity, geographic location in the U.S., age, and marital status). Second, we employ decomposition analysis to adjudicate between different explanations (i.e. compositional shifts vs. unobserved behavioral changes) behind any documented declines. Third, via the proposed administrative supplement, we propose to extend the time frame of our analysis to cover the pre and post COVID-19 eras. The alarmingly disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on the Hispanic population motivates our focus on determining how the COVID-19 pandemic has altered adolescent and early fertility among Hispanic Americans. Together, our approach will reveal patterns that are essential to a more comprehensive understanding of Hispanic teen fertility, including how it has (or has not) changed and the reasons for any observed changes.