Initial effects of program elimination on school enrollment and child health outcomes

项目总结 我们研究了最近和突然取消墨西哥有条件现金转移的影响 在学校入学和儿童健康结果方面的繁荣。有条件现金转移(CCT) 这些方案将向贫困家庭的资金转移与儿童的教育和健康以及 20年前首先在墨西哥和巴西首创，现在在60多个国家运营 主要是发展中国家(ibarraran等人2017年)。普洛斯佩拉的(以前命名为 进展/机会)初步随机评估和随访研究表明 在儿童教育和健康成果方面有重大和重要的改善，以及 在家庭经济成果方面，总结于(Parker和Todd，2017)。这些研究 有助于在墨西哥扩大规模，并将其主要功能推广到新项目 环游世界。洛佩兹·奥布拉多总统在2019年初突然倒退普洛斯佩拉 提供了一个独特的自然实验来研究这对儿童的积极影响 在这一突如其来的变化之后，世界各地的开拓性和效仿计划将继续下去 在他们家庭的经济状况下。该项目将提供初步效果的证据。 取消该计划对入学和包括婴儿在内的儿童健康结果的影响 死亡率、会诊和住院。目标1研究倒退对学校的影响 在退回后的下一年招收6至18岁的儿童和青年。 目标2估计回落对婴儿死亡率和健康咨询的影响 回滚后一年的住院率。这项研究将提供初步证据 消除收入转移计划对极端贫困人口的影响 发展中国家。它将提供一些关于儿童可持续发展的初步证据 当有条件的现金转移计划结束时，教育和医疗保健收益，并有助于 关于收入转移结束后计划影响是否持续的新的和批判性的文献。

PROJECT SUMMARY We study the effects of the recent and sudden rollback of the Mexican conditional cash transfer Prospera on school enrollment and child health outcomes. Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs link monetary transfers to poor households to children’s education and health and were first pioneered in Mexico and Brazil two decades ago, now operating in more than 60 mostly developing countries (ibarraran et al. 2017). Prospera’s (previously named Progresa/Oportunidades) initial randomized evaluation and follow up studies demonstrated significant and important improvements on children’s education and health outcomes, as well as in household economic outcomes, summarized in (Parker and Todd, 2017). These studies contributed to both a scale up within Mexico and the spread of its key features to new programs around the world. The sudden rollback of Prospera in early 2019 by President Lopez Obrador provides a unique natural experiment to study whether the positive effects on children of this pioneering and emulated around the world program will be sustained after this sudden change in their households’ economic situations. This project will provide evidence on the initial effects of the program elimination on school enrollment and child health outcomes including infant mortality, consultations, and hospitalizations. Aim 1 studies the impact of the rollback on school enrollment of children and youth between the ages of 6 and 18 in the year following rollback. Aim 2 estimates the impacts of the rollback on infant mortality and on health consultations and hospitalizations in the year following rollback. The study will provide evidence on the initial effects of eliminating an income transfer program to the population in extreme poverty in a developing country. It will provide some of the first evidence on the sustainability of child education and health gains when a conditional cash transfer program ends, and contribute to the new and critical literature on whether program impacts persist after income transfers ends.