Modeling Spatial and Family Factors in the Transmission of Wealth

描述（由申请人提供）：本研究将探索将空间位置的影响与家庭对儿童经济未来的其他影响分开的统计方法。在今天的美国，家庭对孩子未来经济地位的影响比其他许多国家都要大，而且有证据表明，随着时间的推移，这种影响正在增加，但很少有研究将空间位置的作用与家庭影响孩子生活的其他方式分开。移徙影响经济地位，甚至前几代人的移徙也会影响经济地位，因为移徙者将个人安置在经济回报更高、更容易获得或保留财富的地区。因为经济机会和家庭都是影响因素。这个项目将应用三种这样的技术来纵向数据从历史上的美国人口相关的个人。它将考察在一个不断变化的经济环境中，人们离开农村，进入城市，从事非农业工作，在这种情况下，几代人之间的社会流动可能达到何种程度。贝叶斯聚类模型将探讨财富在空间上聚集的程度，以及家庭的聚类如何影响他们的财富。贝叶斯纵向模型将研究20年来地点的变化如何影响财富。移民历史来自一个家谱数据库，追踪了1650年前来到马萨诸塞州的9位祖先的后代。有关这些后代的家庭财富、地点和职业的信息将从1850年、1860年和1870年三个日期的美国人口普查手稿中添加。家谱提供了女性丈夫的名字，使我们能够在婚前和婚后的人口普查中确定女性的位置，从而研究性别如何影响社会流动性。我们将研究移民决策对前几代人的长期影响，这在当代研究中是不可能的。本研究中探索的方法应该有助于研究疾病，因为它们将遗传或家庭环境的家族影响与更广泛的环境或邻里的影响分开。公共卫生相关性：健康在许多方面受到经济地位的影响，无论是通过负担治疗、饮食或暴力死亡风险的能力，所有这些都因社会阶层而异。这项研究将有助于解释为什么人们获得他们所拥有的经济地位，以及这种地位代代相传的程度。所探索的方法将有助于涉及地理影响和家庭特征的健康研究，例如确定家庭对疾病的影响更多地是通过遗传还是通过生活环境。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This study will explore statistical methods for separating the effects of spatial location from other effects of families upon children's economic future. In the US today families have a greater influence upon children's future economic status than they do in many other countries, and there is evidence that this influence is increasing over time, but few studies have separated the role of spatial location from other ways families affect their children's lives. Migration affects economic status, even migration in earlier generations, by placing individuals in areas where economic returns are greater and it may be easier to obtain or retain wealth. Since both economic opportunities and families are effects. This project will apply three such techniques to longitudinal data from an historical US population of related individuals. It will examine the extent to which social mobility was possible over generations in a changing economy where people were leaving farming to move to urban areas and take up non-farm work. Bayesian cluster model will explore the extent to which wealth was clustered in space and how the clustering of families affected their wealth Bayesian longitudinal models will study how changes in location over 20 years affected wealth. The migration histories come from a genealogical data base tracing the descendents of 9 ancestors who came to Massachusetts before 1650. Information on household wealth, location and occupation for these descendents will be added from the US manuscript census at three dates: 1850, 1860 and 1870. The genealogies provide the names of women's husbands, allowing us to located women in censuses both before and after marriage, and, thus, to examine how gender affected social mobility. We will study the long term effects of migration decisions in earlier generations which is not possible in contemporary studies. The methods explored in this research should be helpful in studying disease because they separate familial effects whether due to genetics or family environment from the effects of the broader environment or neighborhood. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Health is affected by economic status in many ways, whether through ability to afford treatment, diet, or risks of violent death, all of which differ by social class. This research will help explain why people attain the economic status they have and the extent to which this is passed from generation to generation. The methods explored will be useful for studies of health in which both geographical effects and characteristics of families could be involved, such as determining whether families influence disease more through genetics or the environments where they live.