RESEARCHING THE SOCIAL DYNAMICS OF A LOCAL METHAMPHETAMINE MARKET

描述（由申请人提供）：本项目调查非法药物使用的社会环境背景的一个重要特征。所有吸毒者都直接或间接地参与非法毒品经济。了解生产者、消费者和分销商的市场作用对预防、治疗和执法至关重要。然而，毒品市场是动态的；他们不断地适应内部和外部的力量。没有任何理论（或方法）可以描述这种动态。这项为期五年的研究开发并系统地实地测试了基于代理的建模（ABM）方法，以代表俄亥俄州凯霍加县和萨米特县与甲基苯丙胺市场相关的消费者、经销商和健康行为。这种方法将为研究人员提供一个观察互动行为结果的全新视角，以及在现实世界中不可能进行实验的机会。为了编程模拟，我们将利用民族志方法（特别是决策树建模技术）描述市场参与者的角色、动机、行为和互动。为了验证和扩展这些数据，我们将使用生态瞬时评估（EMA）收集参与者的日常行为、药物消耗、成本和相互作用的定量测量。我们将通过三波面板研究（N=204）实施这些技术；来自面板研究的数据将表征样品，告知模拟参数，并帮助验证模拟输出。我们的模拟随后将纳入描述性人种学数据和定量纵向数据，以便“代理人”（虚拟市场中互动的模拟人）的行为将准确反映现实世界毒品市场的现实。该项目建立的基于模拟的计算机实验室将为政策制定者和研究人员提供一个工具：(1)动态地表示非法毒品市场操作，(2)试验代理人行为和市场参数和条件，以及(3)评估旨在影响结果的“假设”政策情景。运用复杂性理论，系统地将人种学的丰富细节与ABM对社会复杂行为的聚合能力结合起来，这个项目将具有很大的实际效用。该项目的具体目标是：(1)对俄亥俄州凯霍加县和萨米特县的甲基苯丙胺市场进行人种学研究。(2)利用生态瞬时评估（EMA）来丰富这些数据，收集日常药物消费、生产、销售、决策、策略等方面的自我报告数据。(3)通过对204名活跃的甲基苯丙胺使用者的小组调查来告知模拟参数。(4)建立ABM模拟计算机实验室，模拟当地甲基苯丙胺市场如何整合社会（即健康）和经济行为进行运作。(5)进行ABM模拟实验，以了解市场的运作和功能；创建和测试旨在影响结果的基于政策的干预方案（例如执行、治疗和推广）；并示范影响艾滋病毒传播的风险行为（例如共用针头、以毒品换取性行为）。公共卫生相关性：吸毒者的风险行为受到其获取毒品的市场的影响。然而，这些市场是动态的和反应性的，这使得理解和建模这种相互作用具有挑战性。本研究的目的是实地测试一种可移植的、理论上知情的、跨学科的研究方法，使用基于代理的模拟来评估市场动态及其对甲基苯丙胺分布和艾滋病毒相关风险行为的影响。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project investigates a significant feature of the socioenvironmental context of illicit drug use. Directly or indirectly, all users engage the illicit drug economy. Understanding the market roles of producers, consumers, and distributors is critical for prevention, treatment and law enforcement. However, drug markets are dynamic; they continuously adapt to internal and external forces. No theory (or methodology) exists to describe such dynamics. This five-year study develops and systematically field-tests agent-based modeling (ABM) methods to represent consumer, dealer, and health behaviors associated with the methamphetamine market in Cuyahoga and Summit Counties, OH. This approach will provide researchers with an entirely new perspective for observing outcomes of interactive behaviors, as well as the opportunity to perform experiments not possible in the real world. To program simulations, we will characterize roles, motives, behaviors, and interactions of market participants utilizing ethnographic methods (specifically, decision-tree modeling techniques). To validate and extend these data, we will collect quantitative measures of participants' daily behaviors, drug consumption, costs, and interactions using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA). We will implement these techniques through a three-wave panel study (N=204); data from the panel study will characterize the sample, inform simulation parameters, and help validate simulation output. Our simulations will subsequently incorporate both descriptive ethnographic data and quantitative longitudinal data so that the behaviors of "agents" (simulated people interacting within the virtual market) will accurately reflect the realities of the real-world drug market. The simulation-based computer laboratory produced by this project will offer policymakers and researchers a tool for: (1) dynamically representing illicit drug market operations, (2) experimenting with agent behaviors and market parameters and conditions, and (3) evaluating "what if" policy scenarios intended to influence outcomes. Applying Complexity theory by systematically combining the rich detail of ethnography with ABM's power to aggregate socially complex behaviors, this project will have great practical utility. The specific aims of this project are to: (1) Conduct ethnographic research on the methamphetamine market in Cuyahoga and Summit Counties, OH. (2) Enrich these data using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA), collecting self-report data on daily drug consumption, production, sales, decisions, strategies etc. (3) Inform simulation parameters using a panel survey of 204 active methamphetamine users. (4) Construct a computer lab of ABM simulations reproducing how the local methamphetamine market operates integrating both social (i.e., health) and economic behaviors. (5) Experiment with the ABM simulations to: understand how the market operates and functions; create and test policy-based intervention scenarios (e.g. enforcement, treatment, and outreach) intended to impact outcomes; and model risk behaviors (e.g., needle sharing, trading drugs for sex) influencing the spread of HIV. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Drug users risk behaviors are influenced by the markets in which they acquire drugs. However, these markets are dynamic and reactive which make understanding and modeling this interaction challenging. The objective of this research is to field test a transportable, theoretically informed, and inter-disciplinary research methodology using agent-based simulation to evaluate market dynamics and their impact on methamphetamine distribution and HIV-related risk behaviors.