Dynamic Analyses of Single Motherhood

描述（由申请人提供）：在HD 29550的这一竞争性更新中，我们通过以下方式建立了我们先前对非婚生育动力学的研究：（1）对婚前第一胎潜在的行为子过程进行建模;（2）区分发生和解决第一胎妊娠的结合背景;（3）发展和评估正式的行为模型，其中未来选择的折扣可能会随年龄而变化;（4）启动男性非婚生育的研究。为了模拟婚前第一胎的子过程，我们研究了性活动的开始，浪漫关系的发生，以及人力资本的积累如何影响女性在性发作后的一段时间内的婚前第一胎风险。为了研究导致第一次生育的怀孕发生和解决的多个工会的情况下，我们模型的非随机选择性的概念，单身，同居，已婚妇女，并询问其他未观察到的因素是否有助于解释观察到的变化之间的联盟状态的概念和出生。为了研究非婚受孕的后果，我们描述了鸟枪婚姻的稳定性趋势。为了调查生育与避孕的感知成本的明显不一致性，我们开发并估计了正式的行为模型，以澄清近视，时间不一致性，不确定性和误解偏见的潜在作用。为了研究男性的非婚生育，我们调查了男性生育和工会历史的质量，并以数据质量为条件，进行男性非婚生育的研究，这将补充我们对女性非婚生育的认识。我们提出了一个多学科的研究团队，结合新的见解，方法和模型来研究这些问题。我们分析了1980年、1985年、1990年和1995年6月的当前人口调查、1979年和1997年的青年纵向调查、1995年和2002年的全国家庭增长调查以及1998-2000年的脆弱家庭调查的数据。在可能的情况下，我们会比较多个数据源的结果。我们始终专注于第一次婚姻之前发生的生育，认识到这种生育发生在异质联盟和社会背景下，以及具有观察到和未观察到的特征的男性和女性。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): In this competing renewal of HD 29550, we build on our previous studies of the dynamics of nonmarital fertility by: (1) modeling the behavioral subprocesses underlying a premarital first birth; (2) distinguishing between the union contexts in which pregnancies yielding a first birth occur and are resolved; (3) developing and estimating formal behavioral models in which discounts of future alternatives may vary with age; and (4) initiating studies of male nonmarital fertility. To model the subprocesses underlying a premarital first birth, we examine how the onset of sexual activity, occurrence of romantic relationships, and accumulation of human capital influence women's premarital first birth risks in the period following sexual onset. To examine the multiple union contexts in which pregnancies leading to a first birth occur and are resolved, we model the non-random selectivity of conceptions to single, cohabiting, and married women and ask if other unobserved factors help account for an observed change in union status between conception and birth. To examine the consequences of a nonmarital conception, we describe trends in the stability of shotgun marriages. To investigate apparent inconsistencies in the perceived costs of childbearing versus contraception, we develop and estimate formal behavioral models to clarify the potential roles of myopia, time inconsistency, uncertainty, and misperception bias.} To examine men's nonmarital fertility, we investigate the quality of male fertility and union histories and, conditional on data quality, undertake studies of male nonmarital fertility that will complement our knowledge of female nonmarital fertility. We propose a multidisciplinary research team incorporating new insights, methods, and models to the study of these questions. We analyze data from the 1980, 1985, 1990, and 1995 June Current Population Surveys, the 1979 and 1997 Longitudinal Surveys of Youth, the 1995 and 2002 National Surveys of Family Growth, and the 1998-2000 Fragile Families. When possible, we compare findings across multiple data sources. We focus throughout on births that occur prior to a first marriage, recognizing that such births occur within heterogeneous union and social contexts, and to men and women possessing both observed and unobserved characteristics.