Age-period-cohort effects on substance use in adolescence, 1976-2006

描述（由申请人提供）：与传统的按年人口比率相比，确定酒精和药物结果的年龄-时期队列效应提供了更多关于酒精和药物使用如何随时间变化的信息。此外，对物质使用态度的信息，如不赞成，可以在年龄-时期-队列框架中进行分析，以提供关于群体层面的风险机制的信息，通过这种机制，终生开始使用物质。不幸的是，由于现有方法在可靠估计效果方面的局限性，年龄-时期-队列分析仍然是一种未充分利用的方法工具。然而，最近，新的方法工具已经开发出来，重点关注APC模型不受模型识别问题影响的方面，这激发了对APC分析的多学科兴趣的复苏。本研究的主要目的是应用统计年龄-时期-队列效应估计方面的最新方法进展，量化年龄、时期和队列效应的组合，这些效应会随着时间的推移导致酒精和药物使用的变化，以及对青少年使用的不赞成。本研究将整合物质使用的年龄-时期-队列效应和使用态度的年龄-时期-队列效应，以评估这两个相关但可能不同的构念的异质性。数据将来自监测未来（MTF）研究，这是一项从1976年至今的全国代表性的青少年年度横断面调查。MTF数据的一个独特特征是在30年的数据收集中抽样设计和测量的标准化。这项工作将特别侧重于估计三种物质（酒精、烟草和大麻）终生起始的年龄-时期-队列效应，以及估计不赞成酒精、烟草和大麻的年龄-时期-队列效应。公共卫生相关性：本研究对公共卫生政策和后续研究具有启示意义。关于物质使用和不赞成的年龄-时期-队列效应之间的相似性和差异性的信息可以为富有成效的假设检验提供基础。本研究的结果将提出青少年预防和干预的人群水平目标，因为年龄、时期和/或队列效应的存在可以提供人群中有效干预的初步特征。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The identification of age-period-cohort effects in alcohol and drug outcomes provides substantially more information regarding how alcohol and drug use change over time compared to the traditional population rate by year. Further, information on attitudes toward substance use such as disapproval can be analyzed in the age-period-cohort framework to provide information about group-level mechanisms of risk through which lifetime initiation of substance use changes. Unfortunately, age-period-cohort analysis remains an underutilized methodological tool due to the limitations of pre-existing methods to reliably estimate effects. Recently, however, new methodological tools have been developed focusing on aspects of the APC model unaffected by model identification problems, motivating a multi-disciplinary resurgence of interest in APC analysis. The overarching aim of the present research is to apply recent methodological advancements in statistical age-period-cohort effect estimation to quantify the combination of age, period, and cohort effects that give rise to changes in alcohol and drug use as well as disapproval of use in adolescence over time. This research will integrate age-period-cohort effects in substance use with age-period-cohort effects in attitudes toward use to assess heterogeneity in these two related but potentially diverse constructs. Data will be drawn from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, a nationally-representative yearly cross-sectional survey of adolescents in the U.S. from 1976 to the present. A unique feature of the MTF data is the standardization of sampling design and measures across 30 years of data collection. This work will focus specifically on estimating age-period-cohort effects in the lifetime initiation of three substances (alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana) and also on estimating age-period-cohort effects in disapproval of alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The present research has implications for public health policy and continued research. Information regarding the similarities and differences between age-period-cohort effects in substance use and disapproval can provide a foundation for productive hypothesis testing. Results of the present study will suggest population- level targets for prevention and intervention with adolescents, as the presence of age, period, and/or cohort effects can provide an initial characterization of effective interventions in populations.