Development and use of conditional reasoning

条件推理包括基于if-then前提进行演绎推理。它是高级推理的一个重要组成部分，理解它的本质和发展过程是认知心理学的一个关键问题。拟议的研究计划是一个正在进行的计划的延伸，该计划将心理模型理论（Johnson-Laird & Byrne, 1999; 2002）与模型生成的明确信息处理账户（Markovits & Barrouillet, 2002）相结合。该模型的一个关键假设是，儿童和没有准备的成年人的条件推理严重依赖于从语义记忆中获取信息的过程。先前的研究已经证实，儿童和许多成年人做出的各种推断都受到检索过程效率的影响（Janveau-Brennan & Markovits; Markovits & Quinn, 2001; 1999; Quinn & Markovits, 1998）。此外，该模型对抑制在反事实前提推理中的作用（Simoneau & Markovits, 2003）以及工作记忆容量与推理的关系（Markovits & Doyon, 2004）做出了一些明确的预测。拟议的计划将以下列方式扩展这些成果。第一组研究将使用时间限制来检查在检索可能性有限时处理前提的方式。第二组研究将检验推理者所做的推论和证明之间的关系。推断的延迟将用于估计检索概率，这些将被输入到MPT数学模型中。第三组研究将检查儿童用错误和抽象前提进行推理的方式的变化。孩子们将看到描述幻想世界的视频。他们将被要求在这些世界的背景下做出推断。其他研究将考察抑制能力、工作记忆和错误前提推理之间的关系，以及概率推理和演绎推理之间的关系。

Conditional reasoning involves making deductive inferences based on if-then premises. It is a key component of advanced reasoning, and understanding its nature and developmental course is a key problem in cognitive psychology. The proposed program of research is an extension of an on-going program that has combined mental model theory (Johnson-Laird & Byrne, 1999; 2002) with an explicit information processing account of model generation (Markovits & Barrouillet, 2002). A key postulate of this model is that conditional reasoning in children, and in unprepared adults, is heavily dependent on processes involved in information retrieval from semantic memory. Previous research has established that the kinds of inferences that are made both by children and many adults are influenced by the efficiency of retrieval processes (Janveau-Brennan & Markovits; Markovits & Quinn, 2001; 1999; Quinn & Markovits, 1998). In addition, the model makes some explicit predictions about the roles of inhibition in reasoning with contrary-to-fact premises (Simoneau & Markovits, 2003) and about the way that working memory capacity is related to reasoning (Markovits & Doyon, 2004). The proposed program will extend these results in the following ways. A first set of studies will use time constraints to examine the way that premises are processed when retrieval possibilities are limited. A second set of studies will examine the relation between inferences and justifications made by reasoners. Latencies for inferences will be used to estimate retrieval probability and these will be input into a MPT mathematical model. A third set of studies will examine changes in the way that children reason with false and abstract premises. Children will be presented with videos that describe fantasy worlds. They will be asked to make inferences within the context of these worlds. Other studies will examine the relation between inhibitory capacity, working memory and reasoning with false premises, and the relation between probabilistic and deductive reasoning.