Development and use of conditional reasoning

条件推理涉及基于if-then前提进行演绎推理。它是高级推理的重要组成部分，理解它的性质和发展过程是认知心理学的一个关键问题。拟议的研究计划是一个正在进行的计划，结合心理模型理论（约翰逊-莱尔德和伯恩，1999年; 2002年）与明确的信息处理帐户的模型生成（Markovits和Barrouillet，2002年）的延伸。这个模型的一个关键假设是，儿童的条件推理，以及没有准备的成年人，在很大程度上依赖于从语义记忆中检索信息的过程。先前的研究已经确定，儿童和许多成年人所做的各种推理都受到检索过程效率的影响（Janveau-Brennan&Markovits; Markovits & Quinn，2001; 1999; Quinn & Markovits，1998）。此外，该模型对抑制在与事实相反的前提推理中的作用（Simoneau & Markovits，2003）以及工作记忆容量与推理的关系（Markovits & Doyon，2004）做出了一些明确的预测。所提出的方案将以下列方式扩展这些结果。第一组研究将使用时间限制，以检查的方式，前提是处理时，检索的可能性是有限的。第二组研究将考察推理者所作的推理和证明之间的关系。推理的延迟将用于估计检索概率，并将其输入MPT数学模型。第三组研究将考察儿童在错误和抽象前提下推理方式的变化。孩子们将观看描述幻想世界的视频。他们将被要求在这些世界的背景下做出推论。其他研究将考察抑制能力、工作记忆和错误前提推理之间的关系，以及概率推理和演绎推理之间的关系。

Conditional reasoning involves making deductive inferences based on if-then premises. It is a key component of advanced reasoning, and understanding its nature and developmental course is a key problem in cognitive psychology. The proposed program of research is an extension of an on-going program that has combined mental model theory (Johnson-Laird & Byrne, 1999; 2002) with an explicit information processing account of model generation (Markovits & Barrouillet, 2002). A key postulate of this model is that conditional reasoning in children, and in unprepared adults, is heavily dependent on processes involved in information retrieval from semantic memory. Previous research has established that the kinds of inferences that are made both by children and many adults are influenced by the efficiency of retrieval processes (Janveau-Brennan & Markovits; Markovits & Quinn, 2001; 1999; Quinn & Markovits, 1998). In addition, the model makes some explicit predictions about the roles of inhibition in reasoning with contrary-to-fact premises (Simoneau & Markovits, 2003) and about the way that working memory capacity is related to reasoning (Markovits & Doyon, 2004). The proposed program will extend these results in the following ways. A first set of studies will use time constraints to examine the way that premises are processed when retrieval possibilities are limited. A second set of studies will examine the relation between inferences and justifications made by reasoners. Latencies for inferences will be used to estimate retrieval probability and these will be input into a MPT mathematical model. A third set of studies will examine changes in the way that children reason with false and abstract premises. Children will be presented with videos that describe fantasy worlds. They will be asked to make inferences within the context of these worlds. Other studies will examine the relation between inhibitory capacity, working memory and reasoning with false premises, and the relation between probabilistic and deductive reasoning.