Topics in life history analysis, inference and prediction

该研究的目标是为研究复杂过程和数据集以及预测复杂过程中的结果提供统计方法。这项研究的许多应用都是在被称为生活史分析的领域，它处理发生在种群或系统中的事件和其他现象。例如，在医学和公共卫生方面，我们考虑疾病的发生和治疗，以及相关的原因和后果。在社会经济研究中，研究与教育、就业、婚姻状况和父母身份有关的事件。在用于制造或电信的技术系统中，跟踪触发系统故障的事件并确定其原因是重要的。在复杂的过程中收集了大量数据，但从中提取信息需要复杂的分析。此外，这些数据有缺失的部分，而且不准确，使分析工作更加复杂。拟议的研究旨在为复杂的过程开发模型，然后使用现有的数据来分析过程。开发的方法将用于了解和预测发生在医学，公共卫生，制造业和其他领域的事件。申请人先前研究的应用包括预测艾滋病新病例和预测制成品的保修索赔。

The objectives of the research are to provide statistical methods for studying complex processes and data sets, and for predicting outcomes within complex processes. Many applications of the research are in the area known as life history analysis, which deals with events and other phenomena that occur in populations or systems. For example, in medicine and public health we consider the occurrence and treatment of diseases, and their associated causes and consequences. In socioeconomic studies, events related to education, employment, conjugal status and parenthood are studied. In technological systems used in manufacturing or telecommunications, it is important to track events triggering system failures and to determine their causes. Considerable amounts of data are collected in complex processes, but to extract information from them requires sophisticated analysis. In addition, the data have missing elements and suffer from inaccuracy, further complicating its analysis. The proposed research aims to develop models for complex processes and then to analyze the processes using available data. The methods developed will be used to understand and predict events that occur in medicine, public health, manufacturing, and other areas. Applications of the applicant's previous research include the prediction of new cases of AIDS, and the prediction of warranty claims for manufactured products.