Methods for estimating crash modification functions for road safety interventions

现代道路工程实践要求在设计新设施或改进现有设施时明确考虑决策的安全后果。这是加拿大交通协会几何设计指南中的一个基本原则，在世界范围内被认为是这方面的突破性成果。不幸的是，关于安全影响的可靠的明确知识相对较少，本指南的全部潜力尚未实现。拟议研究的基本目标是在方法上取得进展，以获得用于量化道路设计决策的安全影响的碰撞修改因素或功能。将广泛使用来自公路安全信息系统、安大略省和多伦多市碰撞和道路数据库的数据。拟议的研究将对实现加拿大交通和公路安全部长理事会提出的“2010年道路安全愿景”作出重大贡献，即到2008-2010年期间（与1996-2001年相比）将加拿大道路使用者死亡或严重受伤的平均人数减少30%。为此目的，将适当集中注意与这一愿景的目标最相关的道路要素和干预措施。鉴于美国主导的一项重大倡议，即到2008年开发第一版《公路安全手册》（HSM），特别是考虑到HSM中关于可靠的碰撞修改因素或功能的信息少得惊人的现实，这项研究尤其及时。

Modern road engineering practice requires explicit consideration of the safety consequences of decisions in designing a new facility or improving an existing one. This is a fundamental principle in the Transportation Association of Canada's Geometric Design Guide, which is regarded around the world as ground-breaking in this respect. Unfortunately, reliable explicit knowledge on safety implications is relatively scarce and the full potential of this Guide is unrealized. The fundamental objective of the proposed research is to make advances in the methodology for deriving crash modification factors or functions that are used to quantify the safety implications of road design decisions. Extensive use will be made of data from the Highway Safety Information System, and from the Ontario provincial and the city of Toronto crash and roadway databases. The proposed research will make a significant contribution in the fulfillment of "Road Safety Vision 2010", as set forth by the Canadian Council of Ministers for Transportation and Highway Safety, to reduce the average number of road users killed or seriously injured in Canada by 30% by the 2008-2010 period (compared to 1996-2001). To this end, there will be appropriate focus on the roadway elements and interventions most relevant to the targets of this vision. The research is particularly timely in the light of a major U.S.-led initiative to develop a first edition of a Highway Safety Manual (HSM) by 2008, and especially in the light of the reality that there will be surprisingly little information in the HSM on reliable crash modification factors or functions.