Systematic methods in population health risk assessment

健全的统计方法对于正确评估关于加拿大人健康潜在风险的毒理学和流行病学数据至关重要。 目前的研究计划集中在六个目标。 (1)世界卫生组织估计，全球约四分之一的疾病负担和儿童三分之一以上的疾病负担可归因于环境因素。 将使用类似的方法对加拿大疾病的环境负担进行评估。 (2)为确保基于人群的潜在人类健康风险研究提供尽可能准确的风险估计，将制定评估此类研究中暴露测量误差的统计方法。 (3)将开发预测可能传染给人类的动物疾病风险的模型，并应用于预测目前在阿尔伯塔和萨斯喀彻温发现的慢性消耗性疾病的风险。 (4)将开发用于描述铜等在高剂量下也有毒的基本元素的剂量反应曲线的统计方法。 这些方法可用于确定必需元素的每日允许摄入量范围。 (5)随着体外试验在毒理学风险评估中的应用预期爆炸，迫切需要开发能够分析未来实验室毒性研究中产生的大量数据的统计方法。 (6)随着毒理学风险评估的预期变化，随之而来的是需要调整风险评估实践，以适应这一新的范式。

Sound statistical methods are essential for a proper evaluation of toxicological and epidemiological data on potential risks to the health of Canadians. The present research program focuses on six objectives. (1) The World Health Organization estimates that approximately one-quarter of global burden of illness and more than one-third for children is attributable to environmental factors. An assessment of the environmental burden of disease in Canada will be conducted using similar methods. (2) To ensure that population based studies of potential human health risks provide risk estimates that are as accurate as possible, statistical methods for assessing exposure measurement errors in such studies will be developed. (3) Models for predicting the risks of animal diseases that may be transmitted to humans will be developed, and applied to predict the risks of chronic wasting disease, which is now found in Alberta and Saskatchewan. (4) Statistical methods for describing dose-response curves for essential elements such as copper that are also toxic at high doses will be developed. These methods can then be used to establish a range of allowable daily intakes of essential elements. (5) With the anticipated explosion in the use of in vitro tests for toxicological risk assessment, there is a pressing need for the development of statistical methods capable of analyzing the large volumes of data that will be produced in laboratory studies of toxicity in the future. (6) With the anticipated changes in toxicological risk assessment, there is a concomitant need to adapt risk assessment practices to this new paradigm.