Predictive ecology of forest plant diversity

遍布加拿大大地的许多生态区为我们的自然遗产提供了多样性。从贫瘠的苔原到广阔的草原再到茂密的森林，任何一个生态区的基本视觉和生物特征都是由它的植被决定的。植物生态学对原生植被进行描述性研究的历史悠久，这些研究沿着光、水和养分的可用性梯度将原生植被划分为不同的植物群落。通过对植物功能和适应性的研究，我们在一定程度上理解了为什么特定物种在某些环境中繁荣而在另一些环境中灭绝。这方面的知识对于制定有充分根据的政策，可持续地管理我们的森林和野生动物栖息地，以及保护濒危动植物物种至关重要。遗憾的是，描述性研究并不能很好地帮助我们预测植物群落如何应对气候变化和外来物种的入侵。植物生态学家现在面临的挑战是发展客观、定量的方法来预测植物群落对其环境变化的反应，以及从群落中提取物种的区域物种库。这些挑战组织了我的研究计划。

The many ecoregions across the Canadian landscape provide the diversity underpinning our natural heritage. The fundamental visual and biological character of any ecoregion is set by its vegetation, from barren tundra through expansive grasslands to dense forests. Plant ecology has a long history of descriptive studies classifying native vegetation into different plant communities arrayed along gradients in light, water and nutrient availability. Through studies of plant function and adaptation, we understand to a lesser degree why particular species prosper in some environments and die out in others. This knowledge is critical to developing well-founded policies for the sustainable management of our forests and wildlife habitat, and for protecting endangered plant and animal species. Descriptive studies unfortunately do not prepare us well for predicting how plant communities will respond to climate change and invasion by non-native species. Plant ecologists now are challenged to develop objective, quantitative methods for predicting the responses of plant communities to changes in their environment and in the regional species pool from which species in the community are drawn. These challenges organize my research program.