Discovery Projects - Grant ID: DP210101440

国家依赖型政府支出乘数的统计分析。该项目旨在通过承认政府支出是对经济有不同影响的部门支出的总和，对政府支出乘数提供新的统计分析。更复杂的是，乘数也可能依赖于国家，这意味着它的大小可能在衰退和扩张之间有所不同。该项目的预期成果包括通过新的分解更好地了解乘数的组成部分，以及为乘数的状态依赖性制订新的统计检验。这将为研究人员带来新的工具和见解，并为政策制定者提供及时的财政政策指导，从而为研究人员带来重大好处。

Statistical Analysis of State-Dependent Government Spending Multipliers. This project aims to provide a new statistical analysis of the government spending multiplier by acknowledging that government spending is the sum of sectoral spending which has heterogeneous effects on the economy. An added complication is that the multiplier can also be state-dependent, meaning that its magnitude can differ across recessions and expansions. Expected outcomes of this project include a better understanding of the components of the multiplier by novel decomposition and the development of a new statistical test for the state-dependency of the multiplier. This should provide significant benefits to researchers by bringing in new tools and insights and to policymakers by providing timely guidance on fiscal policies.