FORWARD III: Modelling to contribute to cumulative effects management in the Canadian Boreal Forest

我们建议将基于流域的研究与在加拿大北方森林经营的石油和林业工业直接联系起来。我们将通过土壤、植被、河流和生物指标的复垦，量化和模拟景观尺度干扰的影响和恢复轨迹。我们将测试油砂场地这些流域变量的恢复轨迹与协同奖获奖项目FORWARD中监测的燃烧和实验收获流域的恢复轨迹相似的假设，该项目为29个参考和受干扰的北方平原和北方盾流域开发了一个长期数据库。该设计包括15个这样的长期流域，包括参考和干扰点以及油砂回收处理。水文和水质建模将完成并扩展FORWARD中开发的模型，以包括从回收和收获的流域以及纸浆厂进入阿萨巴斯卡河下游系统的有机化学物质负荷的预测。对这一主要负荷源的定义将为有机污染物的运输、命运及其累积下游影响建模提供机会，并确定它们对水生无脊椎动物、鱼类和两栖动物的毒性。水文和水质建模工具对于阿尔伯塔省和整个加拿大的人类干扰和开垦结果的可持续管理至关重要，在这些地区，各种强度的资源开采改变了鱼类、野生动物和下游用水者的污染物负荷和暴露。自然资源部门的协作影响和复垦研究以及工业参与者之间的合作将加强累积影响评估并促进分水岭功能和生物资源的成功恢复。这项研究的目标是影响工业应用、规划和监管的一系列成果，并将提供应对这些行业挑战所需的高素质人才。

We propose to directly link watershed-based research to the petroleum and forestry industries operating in the Canadian Boreal Forest. We will quantify and model the impacts of landscape-scale disturbances and recovery trajectories through reclamation of soils, vegetation, streams and bioindicators. We will test the hypothesis that recovery trajectories for these watershed variables at oil sands sites parallel those seen for burned and experimentally harvested watersheds monitored during the Synergy Award winning FORWARD program, which developed a long-term database for 29 reference and disturbed Boreal Plain and Boreal Shield watersheds. The design, including 15 of these long term watersheds, consists of reference and disturbance sites and oil sands reclamation treatments. Hydrologic and water quality modeling will complete and extend the models developed in FORWARD to include prediction of organic chemical loading into the Lower Athabasca River system from reclaimed and harvested watersheds, as well as from pulp mills. Definition of this primary loading source will provide an opportunity to model the transport, fate and thus cumulative downstream impact of organic contaminants, and to determined their toxicity to aquatic invertebrates, fish and amphibians. The hydrologic and water quality modeling tools will be essential to sustainable management of human disturbance and reclamation outcomes in Alberta and throughout Canada, where various intensities of resource extraction alter contaminant loading and exposure for fish, wildlife and downstream water users. Collaborative impact and reclamation research and cooperation between industrial participants in the natural resource sector will enhance cumulative effects assessment and facilitate successful recovery of watershed functions and biotic resources. This research targets a number of outcomes impacting industrial application, planning and regulation and will provide the high quality personnel required to meet the challenges of these industries.